Thursday, November 26, 2009

Opinion

Michael Barone

More on Clinton and Obama's Jacksonian, Academic Divide

April 04, 2008 02:26 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

A fellow aficionado of election statistics has directed me to this city-and-town map of the Democratic primary results in Massachusetts. Click on any city or town and you'll get the percentages for Clinton and Obama. Note that Obama does not get extremely high percentages in high-income suburbs. He runs no better than even in Newton, for example. One reason: There are many Jewish voters there, and Clinton has tended to run ahead, often well ahead, of Obama among Jews. In contrast, Obama did much better in college towns—66 percent in Amherst, 60 percent in Williamstown, 63 percent in Cambridge. Clinton won 74 percent in Lawrence, an old shoe manufacturing town with many Latinos; she got 77 percent in Fall River and 70 percent in New Bedford, which has a high Portuguese population. And here's an interesting contrast. Provincetown, where the large majority of single-sex marriages have been of men, voted 63 percent for Clinton. Northampton, where the large majority of single-sex marriages have been of women, voted 58 percent for Obama. Do gay men tend to support Clinton and gay women tend to support Obama?

Tags: Massachusetts | presidential election 2008 | primaries | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton

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Suburban Precinct Numbers

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/primaries/conn_primary_dem_results_by_town/

Above is a link to the Connecticut numbers to add to your Massachusetts analysis--check out New Canaan and Darien--both big Obama wins.

http://www.co.henrico.va.us/registrar/2008FebruaryElection-unOfficialResult.htm

Also above is a link to the the Henrico Co VA website. Obama does well in affluent, strongly GOP slice of Henrico--the Tuckahoe District--which Obama carried 5,100-2,800. Allen won every precinct there in 2006. (see also VA statewide site --http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/).

Similar pattern in affluent, now swing McLean/Great Falls portion of Fairfax Co--where Obama ran particularly well -- see riverfront precincts 301, 304, 306, 311.

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/result/DEM_RESU08_final.pdf

Thanks

Pretty much a landslide

Looking at your map, It is pretty much a landslide in Clinton's favor. With the exception of ultra rich Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island, and a small enclave around Amherst, Clinton swept the state. So much for the value of Kennedy and Kerry endorsements.

BTW, Obama has certainly not been courting the gay vote. In fact, he is reported to have refused to be photographed with San Francisco mayor Gaven Newsom out of fear that it might tarnish his otherwise blank canvas.

Aaahhh, it all makes sense now . . .

. . . kind of an oxymoron - Jacksonian Democrat . . .

But if one falls for the race bate, then one would have to wonder how it came to be that an African America became (first democratic) governer of the state (in a really long time). As much as race is an issue in American history, so is gender, and to give more weight to one issue is to view this phenomena through narrow lens. I guess what the MA primary results show is that it's mult-dimensional.

At any rate, I still stand by my previous statements. Boston and surrounding areas (areas heavily populated with minorities) swung for Obama. If one thinks there is nothing wrong with minorities supporting minorities, then they're much a part of the race issue that still plagues America as Jacksonian democrats. There are some minority groups who went decisively for Clinton, like, I would imagine, the Asian vote. One might say at a visceral level that race was the motivating factor, but in all honesty, this is too superficial and we need to look deeper than just race and gender. There's also other factors that come into play and many reasons to be FOR Clinton, than AGAINST Obama. Many of which are in line with Asian values. And at the end of the primary day, those reasons won the day.

My greatest fear is that this primary race really does divide the democratic party, and a segment of that population will actually end of voting for the white guy (out of spite, mind you, not hate for another's race or gender).

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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