Illinois Election: Very Bad News for GOP
Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis in the special election to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. This is a district George W. Bush carried 54 to 42 percent in 2000 and 56 to 44 percent in 2004. Republican spin artists can say that Oberweis was a flawed candidate, that special elections are more volatile than general elections, etc., etc. But the bottom line is that this is very bad news for House Republicans. The seats of the former speaker and of former Majority Leader Tom DeLay are now held by Democrats.
Barack Obama cut a spot for Foster, and his home state popularity does suggest that Republicans could lose other Illinois open seats in November—the 11th and 18th districts—and Democrats could fare well in seats Republicans held marginally in 2006—the 6th, 10th, and 15th. And that Obama, at least at his current levels of popularity, could help Democratic House challengers elsewhere.
Demographically, the 14th is the fastest-growing Illinois district. Kane County, Hastert's home at the edge of the Chicago metropolitan area, is one of the fastest-growing counties in the country. This suggests that an Obama-led Democratic Party could be fully competitive in the exurbs, as the Mark Warner- and Tim Kaine-led Virginia Democratic Party has been in the exurbs of Washington, D.C. George W. Bush got huge margins in the exurbs; he carried 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in both 2000 and 2004. John McCain can't count on that kind of support in 2008.
Tags: Illinois | elections | Republicans
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All politics is local
I'm not discounting the Obama factor, in fact, I think it's possible Foster may have lost without it. But the sort of irrational hero-worship of Sen. Obama started in Illinois long before his presidential candidacy so the Republicans knew to expect that.
I think it really came down to absurd mudslinging that the Oberweis campaign needlessly pursued from the first days of his primary campaign. I think voters who had been peacefully casting votes for years for Hastert, whom they both knew and respected, were shell-shocked by the brutal party infighting just to win the Republican primary.
The entire tone of the Republican primary disgusted local media and alienated loyal voters. This that is more than just a flawed candidate. That's a flawed campaign strategy.
I think that regardless of the Republican candidate, they can win that seat back in November, but they need a strategy that will rally Republicans, not repulse them.
Obie IS a horrible candidate
I think you should not discount how bad the "flawed candidate," Oberweis really is. He is a horrible candidate that has lost three times before Senate, Gov. and now Congress.
Here is the problem. He is a rich guy that was never involved in politics before but, because he has tall $$ he felt he could start at the top. He was not pursued by the party, he just announced on his own and had no support either locally or state wide before he launched his various candidacies.
In his first race for the Senate, his basic stance was vote for me because I'm rich. He had no real agenda or philosophy and he's lighted from one "idea" to the next just trying to find something that "works."
I think the Dems could beat him if they ran a potted plant up against Oberweis.
So, don't so blithely ignore that he is a "flawed candidate."
Saturday election
How much, if any, influence did the fact that the election was held on a Saturday have on its result?
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