Ohio and Texas Trend to Obama
The latest poll numbers from Texas and Ohio are not good news for Hillary Clinton. The realclearpolitics.com average has her ahead of Barack Obama by only 49 to 46 percent. She leads by a statistically insignificant 48 to 47 percent in the ABC/Washington Post poll and 47 to 44 percent in Rasmussen.
ABC/WaPo has the following ethnic breakdown:
| Clinton | Obama | |
|---|---|---|
| White women | 56 | 39 |
| White men | 43 | 53 |
| Blacks | 18 | 76 |
| Hispanics | 59 | 36 |
Rasmussen has:
| Clinton | Obama | |
|---|---|---|
| Whites | 52 | 39 |
| Blacks | 17 | 74 |
| Other | 56 | 35 |
These are pretty ominous numbers for Clinton, particularly since Texas selects 127 delegates in the primary but also an additional 67 in caucuses that evening. There are nearly 1,000 caucus sites, and Obama should have a huge organizational advantage.
In Ohio, ABC/WaPo has Clinton ahead by 50 to 43 percent. That's better for her than Texas but hardly an insurmountable lead. Particularly if Obama has a 3-1 or 4-1 advantage in TV advertising, as he did in Wisconsin.
Here's an interesting counterfactual. What if Obama had not run? Then Clinton would probably have had the kind of lock on black voters that Obama has now (but didn't have, at least in heavily polled South Carolina, up through December: See the latest December survey by SurveyUSA). John Edwards would not have been much of a competitor for black votes: He was getting just about zero black votes all the way through in his native state of South Carolina. Clinton would have carried the southern states Obama carried, without much effort, with overwhelming black support.
Or suppose that the black vote remained split between the two candidates, as it was in South Carolina throughout 2007? Clinton would have run much better and would probably have clinched the nomination on Super Tuesday. Did Bill Clinton throw away black votes by his campaigning in South Carolina? As satisfying as it may be for Clinton haters to assume so, I think another factor was very much in play: Obama's victory in nearly lily-white Iowa. That gave many black voters assurance that white voters wouldn't reject a black candidate. Iowa in effect made the Deep South Obama country rather than Clinton country. Would Clinton have been better off skipping Iowa, as some on her staff recommended last summer? Maybe, maybe not. If Edwards had beaten Obama in Iowa, she probably would have been; but who knows? Then maybe Obama would have won in New Hampshire (where Edwards was never strong), with the same effect as in Iowa. It's beginning to look like Clinton and her strategists will have plenty of time to mull over these counterfactuals.
Tags: Ohio | Texas | presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | polls
Tools:
Share
|
| Comments (66) | Print
Reader Comments
election
I hope Obama shuts Hillary Clinton out this coming Tuesday! He already has my vote, and I feel he is the better candidate of the two.
Hillary is too divisive and she has tried to paint herself as so experienced, but the facts prove otherwise. She is truly tied into the political machine and she does not have the leadership which America especially needs now more than ever.
God bless this country which I love!
wisdom from the British islands
'Hilary isn't well suited
I am not satisfied with Hilary's claim of 35 yrs experience and readiness to be president on day one. The latest report on her political and campaign management failings are in my view an indication of her poor judgement. How is she gonna be able to manage the economy if she isn't even able to manage her campaign finances?'
Thank you for paying attention
james
Four more years of Bush-Clinton?
C'mon, half the voters in 2008 were barely kids in 1980 when the Bush-Clinton dynasty began. 1981-1989 daddy bush (with ronny), 1989-1993 (daddy bush with potatoe quayle), 1993-2001 slick willy clinton, 2001-2009 baby dubya bush. It's time for fresh air! Hillary should take Madeline Albright and go on a long long cruise. Liberal feminists! the topic! neither liberal nor feminist! Discuss! Why did albright state on CBS 60 minutes that killing 400,000 children (with sanctions) in baghdad was worth getting one (silly) dictator? Why did HIllary and Al Gore support the kidnapping and torture program called Extraordinary Rendition? Please see the Reese Witherspoon film from 2007 called Rendition! It was suppressed! Coffee tawk! 555-4444, discuss!
advertisement



