Political Odds and Ends
• Take a look at the map of the results of Wisconsin's Democratic primary. What do most of the counties Hillary Clinton carried have in common? They're at the edge of the state and in non-Wisconsin media markets. Which is to say, they're counties where Barack Obama presumably didn't have the 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 advantage in ad buys he had in the rest of the state. Note that none of them is in the state's southern tier of counties. Those counties get Illinois media, which has been lavishing favorable attention on Obama for four years, since his come-from-behind victory in the 2004 Senate primary. Implications for Ohio and Texas: Obama appears to be able to outbuy Clinton in both these states.
• Ariel & Ethan, a Washington-area polling firm I'd not heard of before, has E-mailed a report on a survey of 55 uncommitted Democratic superdelegates. Here are a couple of excerpts from the press release:
Meanwhile, a lopsided majority (88 percent) say that a contentious battle on the convention floor could cause irreparable harm to the Party.
Despite the concerns over a potential fracture over the tight nominating contest, the superdelegates interviewed for the study were unanimous in their view that their key concern is determining which candidate will be best positioned to defeat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain....
The study also delved into the highly contentious issue of seating delegations from Michigan and Florida, which were stripped of their delegates after scheduling their primaries earlier than party rules allowed. While opinions varied on the best resolution to the dilemma, most superdelegates indicated that a solution that ensured both states' voters were not disenfranchised without breaking the party's agreed-on rules would be the best solution. A majority stated the delegates should not be seated so long as their states remained under penalty status.
This survey suggests that the Clinton campaign may have a hard time winning over superdelegates and reversing the unseating of the Michigan and Florida delegations. Current national polls have Obama leading John McCain 48 to 43 percent but McCain leading Clinton 47 to 45 percent. There's an argument, which the Clinton people have been making, that Clinton would be a stronger candidate: Obama has a glass jaw and a bigger downside potential; Clinton has been tested; and while half the voters don't like her, half the voters do—her numbers are not likely to change much. But that argument may not prove terribly convincing to those looking at today's numbers.
On Michigan and Florida, it sounds as if these superdelegates want all good things—seat the delegates to enfranchise the voters (every vote should count) and don't seat them (don't change the rules after the game has been played). But the bottom line seems to be the latter. If I were running the Obama campaign, I would have someone get commitments to vote against changing the rules on Michigan and Florida from uncommitted and declared-for-Clinton superdelegates, and maybe from pledged Clinton delegates as well. Then give the names to the media. The point would be to show that even if Clinton wins Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and draws closer to even in the delegate count, she still can't prevail on seating Michigan and Florida. Come to think of it, the media should be polling superdelegates on this as well. We know who they are, and it's not hard to get their telephone numbers and E-mail addresses.
• I'm not going to comment on the New York Times's pathetic story today on McCain. Let me just associate myself with opinionjournal.com's James Taranto, who as usual has the links for anyone who wants them.
Tags: presidential election 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | John McCain
Tools: 
Share
|
| Comments (3) | Print
Reader Comments
Bessie
To Janet Reno; I have read many of your blogs and for the most part I agree with you but let me clear one thing up...Daniel T. Frawley is not Ayham Alsammarae. He to was a partner with Tony Rezko on the Companion Security deal but he is no relation with Alsammarae. Daniel T. Frawley was the second child of eight children raised in Westchester Illinois and now renting a home in Western Spings Illinois. Frawley was fired from the Chicago police department for racial slurs against fellow officiers he is well known for his violent behavior with many judgments against him for assault and millions of dollars in judgments against him for non-payment...When Frawley was bidding for the Companion Security deal he had no office, and no home of his own he was living with his sister Maureen Frawley also an ex-police officier. He is well known in Forest Park, Il. for staging the robbery of his sisters home of 3 guns and $100,000 in cash (he was hoping to collect the insurance). When police told him they were going to notify the feds, the money and guns magically reappeared.
Attached is an article from the Suntimes, Please notice the dates in P.26 ON APRIL 26th the now indicted John Harris directed Home Land Security advisor Jill Morganthaler to find a military site for the training of Iraqi police forces...skip down 6 more paragraphs to the date of the robbery IT's April 27,06...Could it be a coincedence the date of the email and the robbery, I don't think so.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/499796,CST-NWS-rezko07.article
Like Father Like Son --
Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.
The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.
Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.
http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/
Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.
Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.
Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company - Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON --
Obama should be vetted and disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox - X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox - X box to meet the Buffalo Police Department Buffalo Creek.
Wisconsin media
As a graduate of Marinette High School (Class of 1992), I will point out that Marinette, Oconto and Forest Counties are definitely in a Wisconsin media market, specifically Green Bay. The southeastern UP is also more influenced by Wisconsin media than Michigan (see, for example, the number of Packer fans in that area).
I haven't lived there for thirteen or fourteen years, so I can't say why they went to Clinton, but it wasn't because they weren't getting the same advertising as Green Bay and the Fox Valley was.
You are probably right about the western counties which are closer to the Twin Cities.
advertisement
