Entries for October 2007

Scott Rasmussen's poll reports a tightening of the Republican presidential race nationally, with Fred Thompson just 2 points behind Rudy Giuliani. But it should be noted that for several months Rasmussen showed Thompson ahead of Giuliani. Rasmussen's robopolls impose a much tighter screen on Republican primary voters, so his samples include fewer independent-leaning voters; you can see how this would help Thompson and hurt Giuliani. Whether it will reflect accurately the actual primary electorate in New Hampshire and other states is something we can't know yet. It may depend on how the Democratic race goes. If Hillary Clinton wins in the Iowa caucuses on January 3 and the New Hampshire primary that will (probably) be held on January 8, she could very well have clinched the Democratic nomination by January 9. That will leave the Republican contest the only game in town for independent-leaners. If, on the other hand, Barack Obama wins or does very well in Iowa and then scores again in New Hampshire, it could be a spirited two-way race for the Democratic nomination up at least to the February 5 contests—by which time most of the nation will have had a chance to vote. So presumably it's in the interests of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain—the Republican candidates who seem to have the most appeal to independent-leaners—for Hillary Clinton to wrap up the Democratic nomination early.

Bobby Jindal has been elected governor of Louisiana in the first round of voting with 54 percent of the vote. Here are the statewide election results, and here are the results by parish. This is the first major statewide election in Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina; neither of the state’s U.S. Senate seats was up in 2006. I’ve aggregated the results by metro New Orleans (as defined by the Census Bureau) and the rest of state, and compared them with the results of the 2003 runoff, which Jindal lost to Democrat Kathleen Blanco 52 to 48 percent.

Here are the election returns for Tuesday’s special election in the Fifth District of Massachusetts. Democrat Niki Tsongas beat Republican Jim Ogonowski 51 to 45 percent in a district in which John Kerry beat George W. Bush 57 to 41 percent. This probably counts as the “near upset” I suggested as a possibility in my U.S. News column for the week.

In my U.S. News column this week, I took a look at the sharp change in the political balance in Britain and its implications for the United States. As the week has progressed, it looks like the balance in Britain is changing even more.

The latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has a big (43 to 36 percent) lead for the Conservatives—a striking change from the balance over the summer in which Labor led by an average of 9 points.

If the popular vote split along these lines, Conservatives would lead Labor 319 to 301 in the House of Commons, with only two for Lib Dems—down from 62 at the present time (hence the forced resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell as lead of the Lib Dems). That would leave Conservatives just seven seats short of an absolute majority, which would mean they could, at least theoretically, govern with the support of the Northern Ireland Unionist parties.

I had a column in Sunday’s New York Times calling for a primary-season two-party presidential debate. The column was commissioned by the Times, and I was eager to write it because I have long thought such debates were a good idea. The one historical example was an NBC News debate with six Democratic and six Republican candidates in December 1987. My recollection, reinforced by a reading of the transcript, was that Tom Brokaw did a superb job as moderator.

In Saturday’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required), I listed my “Five Best” books on “the shared heritage of America and Britain.”

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill ordering CalPERS and CalSTRS, the state’s two giant pension funds, to divest stock in firms doing business in Iran. This is part of the divestment movement I wrote a column about last month—it’s bipartisan, in coastal states and the heartland, Florida and Missouri as well as California. It’s sparked by state politicians and is an interesting example of how public policy is being made around the country rather than just in Washington.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided last Saturday not to call for a general election this fall. Up until the Labor Party's annual conference in late September, polls had shown Brown's party far ahead of the Conservatives, led by David Cameron. It appeared that in a general election Labor would boost its current majority. But opinion seems to have turned around virtually overnight during the Conservative Party's annual conference that followed.