The Mardi Gras Primary

It seems likely that we're going to have something of a national presidential primary on Feb. 5, 2008, less than 11 months from today. Some 19 states are considering holding their primaries on that date, just after the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada (for the Democrats), and South Carolina. The fact that a majority of delegates will be picked on February 5 gives a huge advantage to the best-known candidates–and perhaps to any less well known candidate who gets a surprise win or close second in one or more of the earlier contests. My friend James Lucier tells me that February 5 next year is Mardi Gras. So I guess February 5 will go down as the Mardi Gras primary.

In all likelihood, then, we'll know who the major party nominees will be in early February. By way of contrast, Dwight Eisenhower announced he was running for re-election on Leap Year Day, Feb. 29, 1956.

More on Rudy

Noemie Emery has a shrewd piece in this week's Weekly Standard on Rudy Giuliani. And, in a post on June 15, 2005, John Hinderaker of Power Line predicted that Giuliani could be nominated. That puts him well ahead of ABC's The Note's Gang of 500, which reached that conclusion only yesterday.