Polls for the Republican Nomination

Pollster.com has an interesting summary of the poll standings for the Republican nomination in 2008. It makes the point, largely overlooked by political writers of all stripes, that Rudy Giuliani has been leading John McCain in the large majority of polls, albeit usually by narrow margins. Political writers seem to be assuming that Giuliani can't win the Republican nomination because of his liberal stands on cultural issues. I have disagreed for some time. Yes, Giuliani's stands on these issues are a liability in Republican primaries. But they could be trumped by the very strong positive feelings people have had about his performance on and after September 11.

That's what talk show host and law professor Hugh Hewitt found when he polled an audience of Republican women in Temecula, Calif., back in 2005. Hewitt asked one of the women why she could support Giuliani when he disagreed with her on cultural issues.

"All that won't matter if we're attacked," she said. "Rudy will keep us safe."

The polling evidence suggests she's not alone. McCain is often described as the front-runner for the Republican nomination. I think it's more accurate to call him a front-runner and to acknowledge that Giuliani is a front-runner too.

Polls all year have shown both McCain and Giuliani leading Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 race. Now this week we have two polls showing Clinton ahead. First, Newsweek—whose polls tend to produce more Democratic results than almost any other—had Clinton leading McCain 50 to percent and edging Giuliani 48 to 47 percent. Then CNN showed Clinton tied with McCain at 47 percent each and leading Giuliani 48 to 46 percent. These come at a time when the standing of the Democratic Party generally has risen and the party has a significant generic advantage over the Republicans, in the afterglow of the Democrats' victory in November.

How long this will last is not clear. In the short run, a lot will depend on the performance of congressional Democrats; in the longer run, the parties' standing will be determined largely by their presidential nominees–whose identity may be clear in just 14 months.

Update to My Most Recent Post

Here's more from retired Gen. Jack Keane on the plan he and AEI's Frederick Kagan drew up for Iraq.

Just in Time for Christmas!

My next book, Our First Revolution: The Remarkable British Uprising That Inspired America's Founding Fathers, can now be preordered on amazon.com. The subject, of course, is the Glorious Revolution of 1688-89. It was, or turned out to be, a major step forward for representative government, guaranteed liberties, global capitalism and an anti-hegemonic foreign policy. It shaped the Anglo-American framework in which our Founding Fathers made the American Revolution. Pub date is May 8, which is also V-E Day.