The latest polls in Mexico

Five public opinion polls have been released during the past week on Mexico's July 2 presidential election. The candidates are Andres Manuel López Obrador of the leftist PRD, Felipe Calderón of the center-right PAN, and Robert Madrazo of the long-governing (1971–2000) PRI. The results are as follows:

López Calderón Madrazo

Obrador

Mitofsky 35 32 28

Milenio 34 31 29

Reforma 37 35 25

GEA 35 37 24

Zogby 31 34 28

average 34 34 27

López Obrador apparently has gained some advantage from the corruption charges he made against Calderón in the June 6 debate. But it still looks like a very close race. Notice that the polls showing lower percentages for Madrazo also show higher percentages for Calderón. The Reforma poll reported that 11 percent of voters said that they would consider supporting another candidate and that, of Madrazo voters saying they were willing to switch, 28 percent would vote for Calderón and 22 percent for López Obrador. The sample size here is probably very small, but this is at least a hint that if the support for Madrazo evaporates between now and July 22, the advantage will go to Calderón. Madrazo has been running a pretty consistent third, so it's possible there will be such evaporation.

I was in Mexico for the run-up to the July 2000 election in which PAN's Vicente Fox won a decisive victory. I can report that polls going into the election did not show a big Fox lead and that well-placed Mexican insiders were totally uncertain who was going to win.