An end to the leftward trend in Latin America?

Here's an E-mail I received from pollster John Zogby on a poll showing Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe with a huge lead in his race for re-election:

"Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is leading his closest competitor by more than a 4-to-1 margin heading into the May 28 vote there, and appears headed for a victory large enough to avoid a June 18 runoff election, a new University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International survey shows.

"Uribe would win 67 percent of the vote, the poll shows, compared with 15 percent for Carlos Gaviria, the second-place candidate, who represents the leftist Polo Democrᴩco Independiente, or PDI, party. Gaviria has gained attention by calling for an end to heavy Colombian dependence on the United States, which has directed more than $750 million to Colombia, making it the fourth-largest recipient of U.S. aid. Most of that aid has gone for drug interdiction. Uribe has fostered that closer relationship with the United States, which has also included an expanded trade pact.

"Anything can happen, but the poll also shows Uribe's supporters have a strength of conviction that makes changes in allegiances unlikely in the last week before the vote—91 percent said they are strongly committed to their candidate, and 81 percent of those polled said they believe he will win the election.

"Uribe is seen as the best possible leader to take Colombia forward down the path of reform he has blazed since taking office four years ago, the survey shows. Asked about which candidate is best equipped to handle a variety of issues, including generating new jobs, improving education and healthcare, and handling drug cartels, Uribe is favored by wide margins.

"He has an 85 percent positive overall approval rating and a 74 percent positive job approval rating. Sixty-three percent said he has done a good job improving Colombian life, and 77 percent said he has done a good job dealing with the drug cartels that had wreaked havoc on society there. Just 6 percent said they feel seriously threatened by local crime and violence, while another 17 percent said they feel somewhat threatened. Almost 6 in 10 (57 percent) said they don't feel at all threatened by crime or violence.

" 'President Uribe is in great position not only to win but to govern for a second term,' said pollster John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International. 'Colombian voters like him personally because he is doing a great job, and they give him high marks—in some cases the highest marks—for improving almost every aspect of Colombian life, from expanding democracy to combating poverty and corruption.

" 'It's clear that leadership matters, because this is a tremendous improvement in Colombian public opinion toward their own country compared to five or six years ago,' Zogby said.

"Uribe gets slightly lower marks for creating new jobs and for improving public transportation, but still, a majority said he is doing well in those areas.

"Asked whether their personal finances were better or worse than four years ago, 43 percent said they are better off, compared with 21 percent who said they are in worse financial shape. Thirty-six percent said their situation is about the same. However, 66 percent said they believe that, four years from now, they expect their situation to be better than it is today, while just 7 percent said they will probably be in worse shape.

"The strong showing of Uribe in Colombia is another signal (Mexico's conservative presidential candidate is also showing strength) that the leftward political tide that had been washing across Latin America may be on the wane. The left had been bolstered with the electoral successes of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Ollanta Humala in Peru, a nationalist who led voting in the first round of presidential balloting there in April but who has since been hurt by the support of Venezuela's Hugo ChChávez, a vehement opponent of the United States. Humala's fate in the June 4 Peruvian runoff election against former President Alan Garcia is very uncertain, according to a recent report by Reuters. In Mexico, the more conservative Felipe Calderon is faring well against two left-leaning opponents, a separate University of Miami School of Communication/Zogby International poll shows.

" 'The School of Communication here at the University of Miami has established several programs with a focus on Latin America,' said Sam L Grogg, dean of the university's School of Communication. 'We view our collaboration with Zogby International on this research as an extension of the important work of our faculty to address the profound role that the Southern Hemisphere will play in the global future.'

"The survey was conducted May 10–14, 2006, including 830 face-to-face interviews with randomly selected likely Colombian voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points."

The school Web site

To view the full news release