This morning's Commerce Department announcement that September retail sales were down 1.2 percent disappointed economists, who had expected a milder decline. It was bad news for retailers, too, who count on the upcoming holiday sales to boost their revenues.
The news got me thinking: For those of you already mulling over your present lists, are you scaling back? I'm wondering if the new "it" toy this year won't be a toy at all but something more frugal, and perhaps more thoughtful. A father might give his young son a day of eating whatever he wants instead of the latest Elmo incarnation. Or a daughter might remember the name of that author her dad loves and get his latest book instead of a new cashmere sweater.
In response to my recent story on the market meltdown, several readers posted questions about what they should do with their investments. Here are my answers:
I would like to invest in General Motors stock at $4.89 a share. Am I completely crazy? —Joe Thompson
The last thing I'm going to do is recommend you buy a volatile stock like GM. Just because it's trading close to its lowest price since the 1950s doesn't mean it's a steal. The share prices have already recovered somewhat from last week's plunge but not by much. As I write this in the middle of the day on Tuesday, shares are trading around $6.60. So, while it's not too late to purchase what some would consider extremely cheap shares, the key thing you need to know is that you'd have to be willing to take on a lot of risk to buy in just as most investors are running for the exits. As analyst Daniel Silver told Barron's, reports that GM could merge with Chrysler have helped out GM's share prices, but the company is still in dire straits.
Check out this week's edition of the "Carnival of Personal Finance" over at Greener Pastures, where you can get tips on understanding the financial crisis and dealing with the stock market declines. For a glass half-full perspective, check out the Personal Financier's explanation of why the current downturn offers a useful learning opportunity.
This week has been hard on anyone with money in the stock market, even if it's through a 401(k) that won't be tapped for years. If the almost 40 percent decline since October 2007 has you feeling blue, here are some tips for dealing with the crisis:
Hole up. Cook, rent movies, or schedule time on your couch and celebrate the basics that you can still count on, whether it's a favorite meal or favorite person. There's something comforting about knowing that even when times are tight—and they might get extremely tight—you can still enjoy yourself.
Yesterday, David Walker, former head of the Government Accountability Office, criticized both presidential candidates for failing to lay out a plan for cutting the national debt. He has long railed against the lack of spending controls and mounting government debt, and this financial crisis has made his perspective especially relevant.
As for consumers who don't have enough money for retirement, Walker says some people will just have to work longer—and he argues that's not a bad thing. The economy needs workers to grow, and health studies suggest people live longer when they continue working. So, in his view, we should be happy when we have to keep working well after age 65.
We know that Americans have lost millions in the stock market in recent weeks, but how will that affect the election? Will the fact that you've lost money, or feel less certain about the economy, change your vote?
Political experts say that for some voters at least, the answer is yes. Thomas Mann, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, points out that historically, voters hold the party of the president responsible for bad economic times, and that hurts Sen. John McCain. He says, "We've had elections with bad economic conditions, during periods of war, and in periods of an unpopular president. In virtually all of those times, the opposition party has managed to win a comfortable election." Since all three of these situations are in effect now, Mann expects a victory for Sen. Barack Obama.
For this week's Alpha Consumer Podcast, I interviewed Rhonda Mims, president of the ING Foundation, and Valerie Brown, president of the ING retail annuities market segment. The ING Foundation recently completed a survey on black women and money that highlighted the group's generosity—more than a third had lent family or friends more than $1,000 in the past year—as well as the need for financial planning, something shared by all demographic groups.
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Mims and Brown recommended a website, finra.org, that allows consumers to check up on financial planners. They also offered these tips:
Use an automatic savings plan.
Start with a workplace retirement plan.
Join an investing club for women.
Resist impulse purchases.
Use credit cards sparingly.
You can also hear the Alpha Consumer Tip of the Week on opening those pesky plastic packages.
Meanwhile, if you're wondering whether this morning's Fed cut will affect you, here's an explanation of how it could lower rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.
We’ve been talking a lot about retirement calculators lately, but how do you pick a good one? A Web search for “retirement calculator” will bring you all kinds of free, online tools. But not all of them are equally useful. Some ignore inflation while others assume an overly optimistic view that income will grow by 3 percent a year or that the rate of return on investments will be 10 percent.
I prefer calculators that let you decide all the variables. They require more effort, but then you can see for yourself how a rate of return of 6 percent, or 3 percent, would affect future retirement income. Here are other factors to look out for:
Over the weekend, I spoke with WTOP about why retirement calculators can be helpful and what to look for when choosing one. Listen now, download in iTunes, or subscribe via RSS feed.
Facing the news that the stock market has plunged more than 300 points isn't the best way to start a Monday morning. As possible bank failures loom and our retirement accounts lose value, I think it's an ideal time to focus on what we do have. There are plenty of ways to frugally enjoy life, as many of our grandparents who lived through tougher times well know.
With that in mind, I'm continuing the "business of pleasure" series, which looks at industries—including coffee, chocolate, and now wine—that bring us enjoyment. I interviewed Tyler Colman, author of Wine Politics: How Governments, Environmentalists, Mobsters and Critics Influence the Wines We Drink. Before you tell me that wine is one of the first luxuries that should be cut during tight times, consider this: There are simple ways to reduce spending on wine without eliminating it altogether, such as buying bottles at the liquor store and refraining from ordering a glass with dinner at a restaurant. This month's Food & Wine magazine recommends plenty of bottles under $20. (If you're like me, anything over $8 is a splurge, and there are plenty of tasty bottles for less than $10, too.)
Today's guest entry comes from Roderick Simmons, founder of the blog Helping You Live Better:
In addition to a weakening economy, our country has experienced some of the worst natural disasters in American history over the last three years. As a Mississippi resident, I experienced Hurricane Katrina firsthand, and I've put together these money-saving tips to help people rebound from such tough times:
Look for coupons before shopping. Major retail and grocery stores, including Walgreens, Wal-Mart, Rite Aid, and Kroger post their coupons online, so you can see what's on sale prior to shopping. Rite Aid has instant coupons that you can use for online purchase, and Walgreens has coupons you can print out. Or, you can register and receive a weekly E-mail.
I could have taken a vacation to Greece with the money I've lost in my retirement account this year. When I told my husband that my 401(k) balance had plunged 17 percent since January, he said the solution was to stop looking at it.
He has a point, but there's something to be said for embracing the shock of just how paltry many of our nest eggs have become. According to a recent report by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, most of us guess how much money we'll need once we stop working. Only 1 in 10 people does any sort of calculation at all. That might help explain why, on average, Americans are on track to replace less than 60 percent of their income during retirement. Financial experts generally recommend that retirees replace at least 80 percent, given the rising costs of healthcare.
Alexandra Armstrong, a financial planner in Washington, has been fielding four or five calls a day from customers, especially those in retirement, worried about their investments. Her advice: Stay the course. "We think things will eventually get better," she says.
The biggest concern retirees have, she says, is that their income will go down. Armstrong tells them that while she can't promise them that companies won't cut their dividends—and indeed, some companies already have—it won't mean a material change in their income, which also comes from other sources such as money market funds.
William Isaac, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in the 1980s, says banks need confidence, not a bailout. "I don't see how the expenditure of $700 billion will give people any confidence in the economy. It's not going to happen," he says. Instead, he'd prefer tax incentives and investment credits or even tax cuts directly to consumers, which could boost spending, at least in the short term.
In fact, Isaac thinks the bill, if passed, could hurt the economy by undermining confidence. Says Isaac, "I think the dollar could decline and commodity prices could go up," as oil already has.
Investors planning to keep their money in the stock market for the long term have come to expect returns in the region of 10 percent, the historical average for the 20th century. But since 2000, returns have been significantly lower. From the start of 2000 through the end of this past May, annual returns for the S&P 500 Index were 1.1 percent. Since then, things have only gotten worse.
The popular press, for the most part, tells us not to worry and says we'll see 10 percent average returns once again. On My Own Two Feet, a personal finance book for women, bases its savings suggestions for today's 20- and 30-somethings on the assumption of 10 percent returns. Vanguard's chairman, John Brennan, assured his customers earlier this year that he believes the markets will return to historical averages, but not necessarily anytime soon. In its October issue, Martha Stewart's Body + Soul magazine took an even more optimistic perspective, advising a reader that the historical average is closer to 11 percent. (Perhaps they didn't adjust for inflation?)
This morning, the Wall Street crisis really hit home for me. Citigroup purchased my bank, Wachovia. I had noticed Wachovia's shares falling over the last week, largely because of its hefty mortgage debt, and the thought that it could fail crossed my mind. But because I have nowhere close to the $100,000 limit that the FDIC insures, I was mainly concerned about logistics: Would my credit and debit cards still work? What about my credit card rewards points?
So far, since the purchase was announced, my account is functioning as normal, and Wachovia assures its customers that we should "continue banking as usual, and feel confident that their deposits are secure."
Americans are apparently divided on whether or not to support the financial bailout. Poll findings have been inconsistent, with USA Today reporting that almost 80 percent want the bailout and the CBS Evening News saying only 16 percent of Americans think it's a good idea and more than 1 in 3 thinks it's a bad idea. Judging from yesterday's comments, most Alpha Consumer readers come down firmly against it.
I asked Rep. Ron Paul, the Texas Republican who was one of the first people to speak out against the bailout because it conflicts with his small-government beliefs, what the plan would mean for consumers who are struggling with foreclosures, credit card debt, and other financial stresses. (Some versions of the proposal include provisions to aid such borrowers.) He told me:
President Bush had a tough job to do in his speech last night. He had to convince the nation—including people who are on the verge of foreclosure, struggling to pay student loan debts, and falling behind on their credit cards—that it was financial giants, and not them, who deserve the $700 billion bailout.
The proposal has been met with fierce opposition this week as consumers ask themselves why they should squeeze their own budgets even further to help hand over $2,300 per taxpayer to companies run by people who earn more than that per hour.
In preparation for the first presidential debate this Friday, I want to know what you would ask the candidates. Do you want to know what they would do to help your drooping retirement account? Or how they plan to deal with rising gas and food prices? Or maybe whether you can get a government bailout for your own bad debts?
To start things off, I asked Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, what she would like to ask. Here's her question: "With more Americans struggling to make ends meet, often at the expense of retirement, what would you do, if elected, to help Americans better prepare for a financially secure future?"
For this week's Alpha Consumer Podcast, I spoke with Justin McHenry, research director at IndexCreditCards.com and Zen Personal Finance blogger. He explained how consumers—especially those with strong credit scores—can benefit from the financial crisis by taking advantage of lower interest rates. He also reveals why small banks tend to come with lower fees and fewer penalties, something to consider when choosing a financial institution. And he gives his own tips on paying off credit card debt, which involve focusing on getting rid of the smallest debt first. You can also hear the Alpha Consumer Tip of the Week on dealing with stock market losses. Listen now, download at iTunes, or subscribe via RSS Feed.