Most Iran Election Historical Analogies Are Misleading and Dangerous

One of the most wrong-headed comparisons between Iran and the former U.S.S.R. is the comparison to the August 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin's iconic image resisting the coup atop a tank, which has led some to complain that Mir Hossein Mousavi lacks Yeltsin's courage. The problem with this line of thinking is that Yeltsin was already the president of the Russian Federation at that time and had the backing of Russia's parliament. Perhaps even more important, there was a tank in front of the parliament for him to stand on because the Soviet armed forces were divided. There is scant evidence of such divisions in Iran.

Historical patterns can clearly be useful tools for thought and action in shaping policy, but in using them it is essential to avoid becoming locked in to psychologically appealing narratives that can skew expectations. It is likewise important to remember that history took a long time to happen and that most of the decisive events to which we look back were the final stages of extended processes. What does this mean for U.S. policy toward Iran? Stay calm—and don't try to turn today's events into something they are not.

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