Nuclear Terrorism, Pakistan, China, a Pandemic: Predicting the Next 9-11

How good a job does the Pentagon do in anticipating these scenarios?
For the most part, the Defense Department is capable of identifying scenarios that could pose real problems for us—disruptive events, they would call them. The question is, once you've identified it, how seriously are you going to take it? Because in a lot of these situations, the implications are fairly profound for the military as an institution, particularly if they mean that certain subcultures within the military service are likely to become a lot less important. If you're in charge, you have a hard time accepting that a lot more people like you shouldn't be in charge. In essence, that's what the seven scenarios are about—highlighting plausible ways in which security could be challenged and if that's the case, OK, how do we deal with them? Or perhaps even better, how do we deflect them, so we don't have to deal with them at all?