How Safe Is Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal?
Though concerned, U.S. officials say authorities have stepped up security of nuclear weapons
Pakistan has been active in improving the safety and security of its nuclear weapons in recent years, despite recent expressions of concern on the topic by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others, says a knowledgeable U.S. official.
"It's clear the Pakistani authorities have taken significant steps to enhance the security of their nuclear arsenal...a variety of steps," said the official. "They take the issue of not ever again being a source of nuclear proliferation very seriously."
That was in part a reference to the nuclear black market of ousted Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan, who sold nuclear technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea.
The current worry about Pakistan's nuclear force stems from the aggressive advances of armed Taliban units, including some about 60 miles of the capital, Islamabad. The official said, "Obviously, what's going on enters into our thinking.... We are watchful."
The Bush administration started a program to assist Pakistan's military with equipment and training on nuclear security. The official noted, "We have provided some assistance over several years," and that assistance continues. "This is mutually agreed-upon stuff," the official said.
The official also credited Pakistan with improving export controls and participating in a program of pre-screening United States-bound cargo from the port of Qasim, Pakistan, with radiation scanning.
In light of advances by the Taliban in Pakistan, the United States and other Western nations have expressed public questions about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
Earlier this week, Pakistan's president felt compelled to respond publicly to those concerns by stating that the country's atomic arsenal is beyond the grasp of Islamist militants. "I want to assure the world that the nuclear capability of Pakistan is under safe hands," President Asif Ali Zardari insisted.
His comments followed a chilling warning from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. "If the worst, the unthinkable, were to happen and this advancing Taliban—encouraged and supported by al Qaeda and other extremists—were to essentially topple the government for failure to beat them back, then they would have the keys to the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan," she said. "We can't even contemplate that."
At his press conference on Wednesday, Obama addressed the issue: "We have huge strategic interests, huge national security interests in making sure that Pakistan is stable and that you don't end up having a nuclear-armed militant state."
- Read Why the Obama Administration Is So Worried About Pakistan.
- Read The Pentagon Need to Rebuild Its Relationship with Pakistan's Military.
- Read Obama's March 27, 2009, speech on Afghanistan and Pakistan Strategy.
Reader Comments
Who are we kidding?
In the 70's and 80's, the US administrations deceived the world by allowing Pakistan to acquire nukes. In the 90's, Pakistan, with the help from China, proliferated nukes to Iran, North Korea and Libya while the US governments looked the other way. We needed Pakistan for anti-Soviet jihad and we happily flushed the NPT down the toilet. Now, in the war on terror when dubious Pakistan is our ally, how legitimate are American guarantees that the nuclear assets are safe in Pakistan?
The US governments have not practiced what they preached and deceived the American public. We've underestimated Pakistan and gambled the safety of the world for the sake of real politic.
What if?
What if Obama and analysts are wrong? What if the Taliban and or Al Quaeda do manage to take possession of more than ten nuclear weapons with the technical personnel to detonate them?
Clearly the ‘cum-by-ya’ policies of the Obama government would be a risky first line of defence against the Taliban and Al Quaeda. Sitting down for a pow-wow with these extremists is an unrealistic strategy; one might say it is naively stupid.
The world would be a changed place over night. Any Western or non-Muslim city within thirty kilometres of the sea would instantly become a target. Let us not forget that Pakistan and its Taliban sympathisers have a submarine fleet. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that nuclear weapons will be distributed amongst other Muslim states.
The world has two options just prior to the Pakistani civilian state being overrun by the Taliban, which looks like a certainty. First option is the ‘cum-by-ya pow-wow’ or the ‘keep your fingers crossed’ option.
The second is the preventative strike option. Clearly any sensible leader who is concerned to avoid the transfer of nuclear weapons to the Taliban and Al Quaeda must make it plain to the Pakistani’s and the world: If you loose control of your state, you must hand you nuclear weapons to NATO. Failure to do so will be construed as a nuclear attack on NATO (as once nuclear weapons are in the hands of the Taliban and Al Quaeda a nuclear attack on either NATO India or both is inevitable. Consequently NATO will obliterate Pakistan and then place a no fly and no ship embargo around it in conjunction with India. The Chinese can be left to defend their border or not as they see fit.
However we all know that Obama will not take the second option. Consequently this will lead to a nuclear detonation in or near a Western or Indian city. Due to the time that the Taliban and Al Quaeda will have had to distribute the Pakistani weapons before their first nuclear attack, (perhaps up to five years), this will lead to a more widespread nuclear exchange involving every country that might be Taliban or Al Quaeda supporters.
This is why you need realists and decision makers in charge of the White House right about now. If the Columbians can get submarines into US waters, carrying drugs, the Pakistan military would easily be able to do so.
The question is this; who is more dedicated to their philosophy Obama or Osama?
Indeed Pakistan seems to be moving in the right direction.....
The fact of the matter is that we just could not abandon Pakistan. It is true that the Taliban are making inroads, but a more detailed view suggests that these inroads are very superficial and small.
After all, it is a nation of over 160 million who recently got rid of a dictator through a powerful civil society led 'quiet revolution' that restored the deposed Chief Justice - against all odds!
And the fact remains that, as explained beautifully by Charlie Wilson a while back, that the US effectively just wrapped up its bags and left Afghanistan after the Soviet War ended, in effect creating these very Talibans!
So we have to take our Pakistani friends along the way, and they are doing just fine. Just give them time and some help, as Barrack and Hillary are doing perfectly.
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