In Mexico's Seething Drug Wars, New Alarm About Violence Moving North

Mexican police found the corpses of 13 men shot execution style near the resort town of Mazatlan in December.

All this has official Washington wringing its hands. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has expressed increasing concern about Mexico's trajectory, according to a senior Pentagon official, and he's particularly worried about instability moving north.

But the violence has already crossed the border. Major cities from Atlanta to Los Angeles have reported cartel-linked killings. Phoenix has quickly become the kidnapping capital of the United States, with an average of one person disappearing each day of the year, according to police. Most of the incidents are affiliated in some way with the drug trade. Late last month, the DEA pushed back against violence related to the Sinaloa cartel, one of Mexico's largest, arresting around 750 people in a sting operation that netted $59 million in illicit cash.

While few expect Mexico to become a truly failed state, there is a very real risk that it will become a de facto narco-state, ceding governmental authority in wide areas of the country to the drug cartels. That's the conclusion of retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a former U.S. "drug czar," who published a bleak assessment after a fact-finding mission in December. Barely two months later, a high-profile incident underscored just how serious that threat has become. Retired Brig. Gen. Mauro Enrique Tello, one of Mexico's most highly decorated military officers, became the drug czar for the mayor of Cancún. His was a brief tenure. A week later, he was abducted and tortured before a former soldier working for the cartels put a bullet in his brain.

The crisis is ushering in a new willingness in both Washington and Mexico City to work together against the cartels. Former CIA Director Michael Hayden, citing Mexico as one of his top concerns for President Obama, predicted last month that the violence may induce both governments to look for an even closer relationship in the coming year, despite historical animosities. Current CIA chief Leon Panetta, meanwhile, isn't revealing the spy agency's actions, but he has suggested that the CIA is trying replicate its Colombian strategy in Mexico.

The existing cooperation between the two countries focuses heavily on security. A year ago, Congress reluctantly approved the $400 million-per-year Mérida Initiative, sought by President Calderón, which consists largely of aid for law enforcement and military equipment. Critics quickly dubbed it "Plan Mexico," a reference to the expensive and controversial Plan Colombia, which they claim has had little effect on the flow of cocaine into the United States.

As Mexico is quick to point out, the cartels get their heavy weaponry there north of the border. More than 90 percent of the guns used in Mexico's drug violence come from the United States, according to ATF officials. Recently, more powerful guns, including .50-caliber sniper rifles, have been showing up in the hands of the cartels, a trend that accelerated after the expiration of the U.S. assault weapons ban in 2004. Eastern European variants of the AK-47 have been streaming into Mexico from gun shows and stores around the country. "No trucker wants to waste a trip by traveling with an empty load, and, likewise, the people who bring narcotics north simply put weapons into their cars for the trip south," says the ATF's Hoover.

This vast trickle of guns moving in ones and twos—the feds call it "ant trafficking"—is nearly impossible to stop. In an operation called Project Gunrunner, the ATF has assigned more than 100 agents and staff to crack down on weapons flowing south and to assist Mexican officials in tracing weapons to their site of purchase through electronic databases. Gunrunner has seized thousands of guns headed for Mexico, but officials admit that it's only a drop in the bucket.

Working too closely with the Mexican authorities carries its own risks. Intelligence officials confess privately that they have little faith in some of the Mexican security apparatus and avoid sharing information because the military and police there are so deeply penetrated by the cartels. Indeed, Mexican police recently announced that Cancún's former police chief is being questioned about allegations that he helped protect General Tello's killers. Of course, U.S. officials aren't immune from taking bribes either, according to the DEA.