Nuclear Weapons for All? The Risks of a New Scramble for the Bomb

Though Tehran insists its programs are for energy and research, it might be able to produce its first weapon in two to five years if it moved that way. The Iranian quest for nuclear know-how and fuel is already stirring interest across the Middle East in harnessing the atom. A nuclear breakout could well spark a genuine arms race in a region plagued by Islamic militancy and terrorism, much of it directed against the region's own governments. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey have shown a recent interest in nuclear energy, and so has the United Arab Emirates, which just inked a nuclear cooperation deal with Washington. Syria apparently also has been considering some kind of nuclear option. A building reportedly designed to house a reactor was leveled by Israel's Air Force in 2007. U.S. officials say the Syrians received North Korean technical help, and the IAEA detected uranium at the site. The alleged North Korean hand is stoking worries that nuclear breakout states might further proliferate their technology and perhaps materials.

Nonproliferation specialists are also concerned about the precedent set by the Bush administration's pact with India for civilian nuclear cooperation. Approved by the Senate in October, the potentially lucrative arrangement overturned three decades of nonproliferation practice that barred nuclear trade with New Delhi because of its nuclear tests and refusal to join the NPT. Bush sought an exception for India, reflecting its emergence as a future democratic great power with friendly ties to the United States. He argued that bringing India's civilian facilities under inspection would aid nonproliferation efforts. But critics believe the U.S. shift blew open a hole in the wall against proliferation, giving other countries reason to believe that they, too, can seek nuclear weapons and then win exceptions.

U.S. tensions with a resurgent Russia are also endangering nonproliferation work. Russia, which possesses more than half of the world's nuclear weapons, is deemed essential to countering proliferation. If terrorists ever manage to trigger a nuclear blast, Russia could well be the unwitting original source of the fissile material, as Graham Allison, a Harvard expert on nuclear terrorism and former Pentagon official, has argued.

Washington and Moscow have been unable to agree on renewing a major arms control treaty that expires in December. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, signed in 1991, set lower limits on the number of missiles and bombers and established key verification procedures necessary for further reductions. After the Russian invasion of Georgia last year, Bush also dropped a civil nuclear cooperation deal his officials had worked out with Moscow only three months earlier. Russian officials contend that Washington has been seeking unilateral advantage in its moves on arms control and missile defense.

Looming over all those problems is the risk of nuclear terrorism. Al Qaeda's interest in procuring nuclear materials is long established. Reports of attempted thefts, missing nuclear materials, and unimpressive security around some atomic sites persist. The revelations of Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan's secret nuclear-supply network have deepened fears of weapons diversion.

Obama has laid out perhaps the most ambitious antiproliferation position by a U.S. president in decades. He plans to lead an effort to secure all nuclear weapons materials at vulnerable sites within four years—the "loose nukes" problem. He also aims to expand interdiction efforts and help countries stop theft or diversion of nuclear gear. On Iran and North Korea, he has spoken of waging diplomatic campaigns that are "tough but direct," shaking off the Bush administration's self-imposed restrictions.

At the same time, Obama says he will undertake considerable other nuclear diplomacy: setting out the goal of ultimately eliminating nukes, negotiating new arms control measures with Russia, seeking a global ban on the production of fissile materials for weapons, and pushing for Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, signed back in 1996.