Where the Terrorism Threat From al Qaeda Is Headed

Theological deterrence. Acquiring WMD remains a stated goal of al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, and the potential for damage has kept such an attack high atop the country's list of concerns, despite the difficulty in carrying out such a strike. But if those technological hurdles can be cleared, the traditional measures of deterrence are ineffective against stateless, suicidal adversaries. So U.S. efforts have begun to focus both on locking down any unguarded materials in foreign states and on screening cargo coming into the country.

That is sure to continue in the coming years, as will efforts to keep gainfully employed scientists with knowledge about biological and nuclear weapons. A shortage of jobs for such scientists is a particular problem in Russia.

One new approach the government thinks will be effective in countering a WMD threat is theological. "We know that al Qaeda and terrorist leadership and operatives actually care about the perceived theological, moral, and political legitimacy of their actions, especially within Muslim communities," Wainstein says. "This is why encouraging debate, especially among credible voices, about the legitimacy of using weapons of mass destruction is important and can affect the intentions and planning of terrorists."

That's a recurring message from counterterrorism officials who've quietly promoted programs like those of Indonesia and Saudi Arabia that try to moderate radical voices as authentic counterweights to al Qaeda's messages. "Showing the barbarism of groups like al Qaeda in the light of truth is, ultimately, our strongest weapon in this long struggle," Michael Leiter, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said recently.

Cyber security. A spate of recent cyberattacks, including those in the former Soviet republic of Georgia and hacking from countries like China against the Pentagon, suggests that computers might be the next terrorist weapon.

A congressional bipartisan commission recently concluded that the fight to secure the country's digital infrastructure from hostile nations and individuals "is a battle we are losing."

But traditional hacking—which is often more like cybergraffiti—may not be the most problematic issue when it comes to terrorism. Terrorists are now using advanced programs to encrypt E-mail, produce propaganda, and design websites, and they are distributing these programs free.

Traditional software piracy is a worldwide problem, but intelligence officials say that al Qaeda and similar organizations are distributing pirated copies of Arabic-language software to both increase their productivity and cover their tracks.

Stolen E-mail encryption tools are widely available on al Qaeda-sympathizing websites, including a program called Mujahideen Secrets 2. As the name suggests, it's the second such release and contains file-shredding software and E-mail encryption designed to mask and erase cyberfootprints and forensics that authorities use to track down propagandists and militants.

Overall, al Qaeda has boosted its online presence tremendously. According to the Washington-based IntelCenter, which tracks online activity by al Qaeda and affiliated groups, the terrorist organization has dramatically upped its online presence in the past few years. After releasing just six video or audio messages in 2002, al Qaeda's media wing, al Sahab, now releases new video or audio recording every three days, all of which are quickly posted on sympathetic websites hosted around the world.