Is Ukraine's Crimea the Next Flash Point With Russia?

Russia is Weak but Dangerous

Russia is not a powerful, stable country. But it is a menace. Anyone who has ever traveled to Russia or its project Belarus can planely see that these places are not modern, developed countries. Although Russian people are very kind and warm, they simply do not know how to stand up to their mafia government. The country has become a bastion of fascism. If you speak out against the government, rest assure you can not get a good job, etc. Just like the old days, you can choose exile or death. It's a joke. Russia is repeating its history. It hasn't learned its lessons from the 20th century. Russia is not "equal" to free and democratic countries, and therefore people should not equate Russia with free countries in terms of foreign policy arguements. It's very important that free countries stand up to dictatorships. It's a joke that the criminals in the the country are permitted to travel freely in Europe and purchase European assets. It's a joke that Russia is permitted to be a part international boides of free countries.

Afghanistan

While I completely agree with Nikolai, I would like to add my two cents to the Afghanistan issue and US foreign policy, in general... I was born in Central Asia to a family of military officers, who were stationed along the Afghan border. Let me remind some of the commenters that Soviet Union's 40th Army was fighting extremists (not only Afghans, but other nationalities), who were supported by the CIA. So, today the United States are trying to correct their own mistake from the past.

There is a troubling trend in the US foreign policy... Aside from Israel and corrupt sheiks of Arabbian peninsuls, the USA has not had a consistent partner in the Middle East and South Asia. Let me remind you of American 'friendship' with Iran and how it ended with the Islamic Revolution and #1 friend turning into #1 enemy. And how some colonel named Saddam Hussein became a new friend of America to start a 7-year war between Iran and Irag (two brotherly, predominantly Shiite nations, by the way). Most of you know what happened to friendship with Saddam...

With the above said, I have no hatred whatsoever toward the Americans. I only want them to realize that there are reasons for violence around the world. And they contributed a great deal to this violence.

Russian Population of Ukraine

If Americans understood the Russian language and they visited Kiev, our capital, I think they would surprised. At least 60% of Kiev's population is Russian speaking, but fewer than 50% consider themselves to be Russians.

You can't force people to stop speaking a certain language. Even in the streets of Western Ukrainian cities Russian is spoken by much of the population, and this is not the elderly population, children younger than 10 years of age also speak it.

Anti-Russian policies by the West will not succeed. Blaming "the Kremlin" seems ridiculous from our point of view.

Yes the Russian Government sent troops into South Ossetia, these people were citizens of the Russian Federation since 1991. Should their suffering be ignored? I understand that these problems are distant to Americans, that many would prefer to see things through a Cold War stereotypical mindset.

But understand this, in 1991 we thought we were entering a period of friendship and understanding with the US, that we Ukrainians, Russians, and Belorussians as well as others of former-USSR could sit at the same table and remove hostilities.

But what happened? Cruise Missile attacks on Yugoslavia. Bomber bases in Bulgaria. Missile bases in Poland. How are we supposed to see this other than a threat? Most Ukrainians don't want anything to do with NATO, why is your Government pushing us to join? Yuschenko is not an independent leader of Ukraine, when people were drowning in flooded regions in Western Ukraine in the beginning of August he went on vacation. He cares more about Western "aid" payments than he does about his own people. Don't view him as somebody who speaks for citizens of Ukraine.

Crimea's Future

It is difficult for Americans to imagine the situation that we(Ukrainians) found ourselves after December 25 1991, Western Christian Christmas Day, this is the day the USSR ceased to exist officially. No such event of such great significance and a period of instability has occurred in the US. Even the US Great Depression did not lead to the collapse of the USA.

For Americans to feel what we feel their country would have to be divided into at least 3 parts, and then these parts would have to become independent nations. For the US such an event has not occurred, mainly due to the harsh and violent actions taken by the central US Government after the US Revolution and after the cessation of the Confederate States of America. The US Government forcefully maintained and continues to maintain its unity.

But if it had lost its unity and if there was for example a New England Federation, a Confederacy of American States, and a Grand Republic of California how would each divide themselves? How would they divide the US Military? Who would lead these nations? What would be the national language? Would minorities disagree with the new governments? Would Native Americans call for independence?

We encountered these problems after 1991. For centuries Tsarist Russia existed as a single country, then came the Revolutions of 1917 and for a significant time there was anarchy and chaos. Every political faction declared sovereignty over their own regions and factions fought each other to gain supremacy. No one wanted to repeat this in 1991.

Coexistence of dozens of ethnic groups with inter-marriage and internal migration led to a mixed cultural identity without a single Republic having only 1 ethnicity. It was impossible to divide the country cleanly along ethnic lines because even the Baltic Republics had massive populations of Russians and Ukrainians. Even though we had separate Soviet Republics they were not divided based on ethnicity.

So in 1991 when Independence Movements were strongest it was impossible to avoid disagreements and even bloodshed in the Caucasus Republics and Central Asia. Many of these conflicts continue to this day as the recent Georgian attack on South Ossetia proved.

This is as a result of the division of the USSR along Soviet internal political borders. When we were one nation it was fine, but with the growth of Nationalism after the 1990s Economic Collapse these borders no longer satisfy many ethnic minorities. And with growing Economic Instability(inflation and a lack of employment plus increased corruption) mostly thanks to the Ukrainian Government of Viktor Yuschenko and Yulya Timoshenko the future of Ukraine as a single united nation seems unlikely.

There is no Kremlin “plot” involved as many in the West claim. People in Ukraine don't support the Yuschenko Government. Many Russian speakers throughout the country would prefer to be part of Russia because of the Extremist actions of Yuschenko.

Economics

This is a clear case of Russian economics at play. There are plenty of natural resources that Russia needs and wants in this region. Do you think Moscow cares about the local people is South Ossetia? Of course not!

Russia just has to stop the oil pipe line that runs through Ukraine and Europe gets no more oil.

That's why Europe is so scared and is refusing to help these poor nations. They don't want to anger the bear. This happened just a few years ago and prices went sky high over there. The E.U "leaders" are whimps in the real sense of the word. They would never actually have the nerve to really stand up against their eastern neighbor. They are scared in the visceral sense. The dog-and-pony show of their barking politics is just to play for the cameras.

This should be another wake up call for the US. We need to get our energy independence or we are susceptible to this same kind of aggression.

The real tool the US has in this matter is allowing Russia access to the World Bank and the international banking community. The Russian achillies heal, for now, is that their currency is closed. They have real problems in trade due to their current standing in regards to international banking.

I don't know about anyone else but I'm tired of hearing the word "Change" from Obama. I want to see his intended policies written down on these matter. I know that I am asking for the impossible because he doesn't have any answers. Bush sat next to Putin in Bejing and nothing was discussed?! I don't believe it for a moment. There has to be covert agreements which the current administration will not reveal. McCain needs to address this issue too. It was obvious from his statements regarding Georgia that he is at least thinking about the region. Perhaps he will adhear to the current policies. (the ones for which we, the general population, are not privy) This is a very dangerous path. We are in for big trouble ahead and no one is able to articulate a solution or path to a solution.

I fear that Russia will draw a line in the sand as far as Ukrainian and Georgian membership in Nato. The Russians (Soviets) are back and they mean business.

The Ukrainians could play this one better. With a 25% Russian speaking population, close historical ties and blood relationships with Russia, you don't bring about peaceful dialogue by inviting US troops, warplanes and possibly missiles to within 350 miles of Moscow. As the Russians remember well what happened to Iraq, an invasion launched via friendly US ally Kuwait.

One wonders why the US is so insistent in including Ukraine and Georgia in Nato? Creating conflict and mistrust between Russia and it's neighbours certainly serves US geopolitical goals as well as providing access to Caspian oil, but is it a prudent long term policy?

The Old Russia

Dear Mr. Curmally,

9/11/2001...USA attacked by the government of Afghanistan [ i.e. the Taliban, i.e Al Queda, etc. ]. An attack on a NATO member is an attack on all---the NATO treaty. Don't let your obvious hatred of the USA completely pervert your logic or any embryonic sense of world history that you may be developing. Does Hungary ring any bells? How about Czechosovakia? And indeed the aforementioned Afghanistan?

Get a library card. Wake up.

Russia

Russia just stepped on it's own crank............,

The US should just step back and give them the rope to hang themselves with. Besides if NATO is unwilling to do anything about Russia's stranglehold on fuel sources then why should we. And, actually the world is too still unipolar, it takes more than military power to be a super power or hyper power (like the US). And, just because you wish it not to be so, doesn't mean it isn't. There is no other power with the influence or ability, even close to be able to fight two wars at once, plus have forces deployed all around the world 24/7.

Imagine the corner Russia is painting itself into by supporting separatist movements, wait 'till all of their own countrymen decide they want independence from them. They won't be able to fight them all at once. As far as super agressiveness, you are correct.......that's why people shouldn't take our willingness to play nice as a weakness. Russia is a first world country wannabe and the only way it will become a first rate country is by realizing that the US is the market and they are the resource, take a look at China.

Russian - Ukrainian relations

Mr. Gee's comments that "Russians would have a hard time coming to terms with a war on Ukraine" are, at the very least, debatable. During the last century, Russia had no problems with an unprovoked war (in the form of an induced famine) against the Ukrainian peasantry, in which millions died, while successive purges turned the country into a Russian satrapy. In addition, Russia had no moral qualms in waging ruthless war against Ukrainian nationalists after the second world war. I would think that the world would be best advised to assume that Russia is back to its old chauvanistic methods and ends, and plan of being pleasantly surprised if the opposite does not prove to be the case.

Is Ukraine's Crimea the Next Flash Point With Russia?

I believe the eastward spread of NATO is something that the Russians are uncomfortable with.They feel that they are being threatened in the Black Sea which has essentially been their domain.

I think President Bush pushed it over the edge when NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia were discussed. First off, what is th purpose of NATO today? Is it the defence of Europe? If it is, then what is NATO doing in Afghanistan? A country that is nowhere close to Europe.Until and unless NATO can be seen as a defensive body confined to Europe,there will be problems.Georgia is not in Europe. Europe ends with the Caucusus and Georgia is on the wrong side of the caucusus and therefore in Asia.The president of Georgia should have known better. he has made many moves to bring South ossetia back into the fold and he has tried unsuccessfully with Abkhazia also.This time he got it in the neck. Simply because he was counting on the USA and NATO whilst both USA and NATO underestimated Russia.

The world is no longer unipolar. Stop acting as if it is.What sort of a super power is the USA? It has been fighting in Afghanistan from the end of 2001 and Iraq from 2003.The day the USA took on Afghanistan, it had signed it's defeat. The Russians couldn't succed with over 624,000 men in Afghanistan.There is no way the West can muster that number of troops today.Leave Russia alone. Let them be. Remember those who ride the tigen cannot afford to dismount. Bin Laden has already taught you that.

My sympathies are with the Russians in this matter and also with the Americans who have a damned fool for a President and a super idiot for a Vice president. This is a couple who firmly believe that they know best and insist on a policy of premption and super aggresiveness in all matters.

There has to be justice in the world. If Kosovo can come about and Serb in Bosnia decide to secede from the country to join Serbia and NATO stood by watch a genocide, then so much for NATO. Precedents have ben set by the break up of Yugoslavia. Now if it worked for you then, it will have to work for them now.