Georgia's Bid to Join NATO Is a Political Casualty of War
The military clashes with Russia hit NATO's expansion plans
Had it been granted a MAP bid, though, Georgia still would not have fallen under the NATO treaty's Article 5—that an attack against one member is an attack against all—since it wouldn't have full membership yet (a process that could as long as eight or nine years). But even MAP status might have increased the possibility of a direct confrontation between the United States and Russia, Logan adds. "The Russians could easily have said, with the MAP in place, 'We'll call the U.S.'s bluff. They don't live here, and we don't think they'll do anything,' " he says.
What's more, if Georgia were under a MAP, that might have made an agitated Russia more likely to act aggressively. At minimum, it increases the chances of reckless brinksmanship among both countries, says Logan. "When your credibility is on the line, it's a very dangerous situation, having these bluffs called."
But that, some argue, is what is happening now. Russia is currently testing the West, they argue—and western response could set a dangerous precedent. "Russians think, 'If we attack, then that country is automatically excluded from western institutions like NATO,'" says Bugajski. "A country that's under occupation, with its territory severed and its capital on fire, is not a NATO country. It's is not an EU country," he adds. "And Russia is counting on this."
And that could also spell trouble for Ukraine, which has threatened to bar Russian warships from returning to their centuries-old port in there. "Through its actions, Russia is sending a message not just to Georgia but to Ukraine," says David Phillips, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "It's 'Russia is back,' " he says. "And upstarts will be treated very harshly."
Reader Comments
OBAMA EXPOSES SCHEUNEMANN’S MARXIST PROPAGANDA
OBAMA EXPOSES SCHEUNEMANN’S MARXIST PROPAGANDA TACTICS
Neo-Con McCain’s foreign policy adviser, Neo-Marxist Scheunemann, is notorious for his role in successfully provoking the War against Iraq; and his failure to provoke total war against Iran, and his failure to defeat Russia in Ab-khazia and S. Os-setia. The illegal and un-patriotic Neo-Con Bush Iraq War sacrificed over a trillion dollars and the priceless lives of more than 4,000 young patriotic volunteers, for the sole benefit of the World condemned Judeofascist Israeli land robbers.
When Obama discovered that Scheunemann had been paid nearly $300,000 by Saak-ash-vili to provoke bellicose American opposition to Russia, in collusive support of Georgia’s bloody military offensive against ethnic Russian Georgians, he exposed this conflict of interest as motivating McCain’s insane outbursts of bellicose treasonous deception, "John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser lobbied for, and has a vested interest in, the Republic of Georgia and McCain has mirrored the position advocated by the government.”
That Neo-Con Bush now demands a billion dollars from Congress, to compensate Saak-ash-vili for starting his utterly disastrous war, suggests that this was part of the crooked deal. Tragically, these high crimes might get the Georgians a billion dollars in exchange for Ab-khazia and S. Os-setia, and burden the Americans with greater debt and inflation.
Pushing Russia Into Western Confrontation?
Looking at the Geoenergy potential of Russian energy and the Western dependency on foreign energy supplies makes the prospect of inciting a regional or global conflict with Russia over its security concerns counterproductive in the Western sence of Geopolitics.
A regional conflict would cost billions of barrels of foreign oil to launch and maintain on the duration of a conflict of lasting duration not to mention the Russsian Nuclear deterrent and subnuclear armaments that may come into play.
This over a foolish and reckless US educated and installed President of Georgia who is playing a dangerous game way out of the experience and ability his has.
Russia is a partner of last resort in many of the issues of terrorism and global weapons systems proliferation to the US and cannot be isolated or threaten by a currently Non-NATO wannbe.
We in the US must think long-term and with the level of chess that is not the preview of child-like checkers! "This ain't Checkers--this is CHESS!
Russia's weak spot and how to use it
An interesting suggestion from Steve Levine. The Russians have a big weakness. Bush, Obama and McCain should keep in mind Russia's Achilles Heel as they deal with Putin and Medvedev. Levine knows this area, having covered wars in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Tajikistan as well as the Soviet-Afghan war: http://oilandglory.com/2008/08/russias-achilles-heel.html
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