Wednesday, November 25, 2009

World

6 Factors to Watch in Pakistan's Upcoming Election

Posted February 13, 2008
Pakistani commuters pass by a giant election campaign billboard for slain Pakistan's former premier Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party in the northwestern city of Peshawar on February 13, 2008. Two polls released in recent days tip Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) as the most popular in the country since her assassination in December, followed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's, with allies of President Pervez Musharraf in third place.
Pakistani commuters pass by a campaign billboard for slain former premier Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party.

But many Pakistanis are calling for the military to remove itself from politics, and top generals' patience with Musharraf could be starting to wear thin. "If this dissatisfaction with the president continues, the Army may want to distance itself from him," says Shuja Nawaz, who has written a book about Pakistan's Army. "But I don't think that the mood in the Pakistani military is for direct rule."

6) Can the winners form a government?

If the PPP fails to win a majority (or if the ruling party cannot engineer a majority for itself), negotiations for a coalition government could be difficult. Bhutto's assassination has bred a fundamental distrust between PPP members and Musharraf's supporters.

Musharraf has an even more bitter relationship with Nawaz Sharif, the other leading opposition figure and former prime minister.

If opposition parties do manage to cobble together some sort of coalition, they will face two key obstacles. Not only does Musharraf remain president, but the Senate remains in the hands of Musharraf's ruling party, at least until another election scheduled for next year.

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