The Bear Living Next Door

Russian President Vladimir Putin (far right), who has pushed for rebuilding Russia's military, looks at a model of a Sukhoi fighter jet at a Moscow air show.

Look instead for Europe to use more carrot than stick to get Moscow to modify its behavior, perhaps seeking to further integrate Russia into the West's economic sphere. Christopher Hill, a University of Cambridge professor of international relations, says Europe should start by building upon the existing energy interdependence between East and West. What's needed, he says, is a more regulated, stable framework "so that Russia does not see [its energy resources] as leverage to use against the West." The payoff for Russia: fair prices and a mechanism to raise them when market conditions warrant.
In the meantime, Russia is likely to keep up the prodding and the military swashbuckling. But that could prove fruitful if it pushes Europe to better accommodate its big bear of a neighbor. Says Bailes: "Russia may be doing the right thing in the wrong way."