Giddy Republicans Foresee Bigger House Gains in 2010 Than in 1994
New Gallup Poll shows first GOP advantage in 2010 election, especially among independents
By Paul Bedard, Washington Whispers
It has been a long time coming, but a new Gallup Poll shows the first GOP advantage in the upcoming 2010 midterm elections, sparking some Republicans to talk takeover. The new poll has Republican candidates favored over Democrats on a generic ballot 48 percent to 44 percent. The situation for Democrats is especially bad among independents, a group President Obama won over a year ago.
Says Gallup: "Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans seem well-positioned to win back some of their congressional losses in 2006 and 2008. Independents are increasingly coming to prefer the Republican candidate for Congress, and now favor the GOP by 22 points. Political conditions could still shift between now and Election Day to create a more favorable environment for Democratic candidates, but a Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters has been a sign of a strong Republican showing at the polls in the coming election."
While Democrats say that they are in a temporary lull, some Republicans are downright giddy and dreaming of a repeat of 1994 when they took control of the House (only to lose it about a decade later). Says one Republican strategist and House GOP adviser: "This is data which supports my theory that a mighty wave is taking shape for 2010. I believe this wave will strengthen over the next 11 months. It is now time to seriously contemplate the possibility that 2010 may be a wave as large [as] or larger than 1994."
Reader Comments
Current State
Voters (specially independents) political opinions can change very often depending on the "big" issues at the present time. Right now, many people disagree with the health care reform issue for example. A lot can happen between now and next November and these polls may look completely different. Obama hasn't even been in office for a full year, polls are bound to be in favor and against Democrats many more times during his term.
Its the Economy "Stupid"
Forget health care and cap and trade. Everything comes down to how the economy is doing next year.
If unemployment is still close to 10%, the Democrats will suffer losses to the Republicans. Remember Obama promised that the stimulus package would limit unemployment to a max of 8%. Soon we will hear "Obama Lied" just as we heard "Bush Lied" when no WMD's were found in Iraq.
Clinton beat the first Bush due to the economy. Bush was very popular a year before the election due to the success of the Gulf war. But the economy tanked and then Bush lost.
The sad thing is that we have no viable alternatives to the Democrats or Republicans. So we blame whoever is in power, especially when one party controls the presidency, house and senate.
The last time we had balance in the federal government is from 1994 to 2000 when Clinton was president and the republicans controlled the house and senate. This arrangement forced more centrist policies to be adopted. The public is never comfortable when one party controls everything because policies then move either too far right or too far left for many of the voters.
Centrists
Readers who consider themselves Centrists might wish to join our brand-new Centrists group at Linked In.
Interesting and provocative non-partisan discussions. No Flamers, bots, or clandestine operatives allowed!
Please contact me at Linked In for an invitation.
Thank you.
Ellen Brandt, Ph.D.
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