Obama's Honeymoon is Over

Video: Obama's Election Night Anniversary

  But Obama also suffered political setbacks Tuesday when voters spurned Democratic gubernatorial candidates Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Creigh Deeds in Virginia, and chose Republicans Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, respectively. Both Democrats had been strongly backed by the president, who carried both states last year. Better news came in upstate New York, where Democrat Bill Owens won a special congressional election over conservative Doug Hoffman. Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava withdrew over the weekend and endorsed Owens.

White House strategists admit that the electorate's patience is limited, but they argue that if Congress enacts the overhaul of the healthcare system that is Obama's top priority this fall, he will end the year with a big achievement, and his ratings will climb. This would, under the White House theory, enhance his image as an effective leader and create momentum for other initiatives down the line, such as Obama's plans to limit global warming, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, bolster the financial industry, and revamp the immigration laws.

"We're closer on comprehensive health insurance reform than we've been in a hundred years," says White House senior adviser David Axelrod. "Seven presidents have tried; seven presidents have failed. He has the opportunity to get it done." Noting Obama's decision to also push for major legislation on energy, education, and other concerns, Axelrod adds: "These are enormous issues that he's taken on at a very difficult time and he's advanced them. By any objective yardstick, he's achieved a lot in the first 10 months." And Axelrod doesn't think Obama's approval ratings tell the whole story. "No doubt there were high hopes and expectations, and I think he is still very highly regarded and people see him in positive terms and hopeful terms."

In foreign affairs, the problems are also immense and in some ways getting worse. Leading the list is the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, where the level of violence is increasing. Eight Americans died in bomb attacks this week, and an additional dozen people were killed in a brazen assault on a United Nations guesthouse in Kabul. A resurgent Taliban is making fresh gains across the country, and Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the senior commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, is asking for 40,000 more troops to stem the tide.

Obama has yet to decide what to do and has been meeting every few days with his "war cabinet" to reconsider strategy. This has triggered strong criticism from Republicans who say he should have immediately approved McChrystal's request. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the GOP presidential nominee last year, said this week that the time is long past for Obama to have made a decision and that he is jeopardizing American soldiers' lives by not sending in reinforcements. But Obama has stood firm against the advocates of quick judgment, insisting that it's best to take whatever time is needed to get the decision right.

Also giving Obama some breathing room is the fact that voters rarely list Afghanistan at the top of their list of concerns. "Politically," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, "he has all the latitude in the world, because the public doesn't know what the right thing to do is and the public knows how complicated this is." The death toll and costs have been relatively small compared with the extremely controversial war in Iraq. "Iraq was black and white, depending on what side you were on," Garin says. "Afghanistan is all about shades of gray."

But, again, the country is split. Forty-seven percent support sending more troops into Afghanistan; 43 percent oppose it. And some Democrats see an opportunity for Obama and his party to demonstrate their savvy and toughness, even though only about one third of Democrats support escalation. "There is still a suspicion that we are soft on defense and not willing to use power to protect national security," says Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank for centrist Democrats. Obama's decision on Afghanistan is "an opportunity to cement among the public the notion that Democrats can be trusted to protect national security," Marshall says, observing that "the whole drama of the Obama presidency is to do big things and at the same time hold together a center-left coalition. This will be one of his toughest tests."