Obama Advisers: Swine Flu Could Infect Nearly Half the U.S. Population
Half the population could be infected by the pandemic
President Obama's science advisers warned Monday that swine flu could infect nearly half the U.S. population this fall and winter and cause up to 90,000 deaths, mostly in kids and young adults. The estimate is double the deaths normally associated with the seasonal flu.
The report by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology laid out a "plausible scenario" where the H1N1 virus could infect 60 million to 120 million people. As many as 1.8 million people could be admitted to hospitals with up to 300,000 of them requiring treatment in intensive care units, the council found.
The number of people hospitalized could put a strain on the U.S. healthcare system because those patients could completely fill intensive care beds at the peak of the flu season. The report estimates that the epidemic will peak on October 15, the exact date U.S. health officials are expected to deliver a vaccine.
"This is going to be fairly serious," said Harold E. Varmus of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, cochair of the 21-member council. "It's going to stress every aspect of our health system."
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius called the H1N1 virus "unusual" because it typically infects children and young adults. "This isn't the flu that we're used to," Sebelius said. "The 2009 H1N1 virus will cause a more serious threat this fall."
The council recommended that manufacturers speed up the preparation of the flu vaccine so it can be distributed to high-risk patients such as pregnant women by mid-September. Originally, the government expected 120 million doses to be available on October 15, but U.S. health officials now estimates there will only be 45 million available, with 20 million more each week through December.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that parents get their family vaccinated once the shot is available.
Reader Comments
This is a crock!
We had swine flu in Iraq and it required a five day stay in bed and it was over.
Let's Have Facts, not Scare Tactics
Mlimberg of GA is a better journalist than Queenie Wong, if you ask me. Ms. Wong seems to be playing into the hands of those who big-deal everything, without any particular factual background for the inflammatory statements. I'm upset that USN&WR lets itself be used by quasi-reporters to scare people into, perhaps, embracing changes in healthcare--or is that the idea behind it all?
It's an Obama HealthPlan Scam!
There is something wrong with this whole event. First, 36,000 residents of the USA die each year from flu related illness. So far, over the last 10 months just over 500 deaths have been linked to H1N1.
Of these linked deaths, other factors also played into the death ( preexisting condition, very young, very old ).
The flu virus in the wild mutates daily. It is and always has been subject to genetic mutations. So when a vaccine is released, it will be based on the genetic makeup of a 6 to 12 month old strain. It can't be helped, it's the way nature works.
A pandemic is what it is being called. Pandemics are only wide spread events, and not numbers of deaths event. So this virus is world wide. Most viruses are with modern era of travel. An epidemic is different. No one is talking about an epidemic.
The number of expected cases of H1N1 fall within normal statistical limits for a virus. Nothing new about the expected cases of H1N1 when compared to a normal flu season.
As far as the data that is presented, it's based on speculation. And the historical data is in general, in line with a virus during a normal flu season.
My first expectation is that the H1N1 virus will be a non event and forgotten a year from now.
So why all the press? It's got to be related to politics. It's too coincidental that the Obama Health Plan and H1N1 are both in the news.
The Obama Health Plan would have no effect on any event, even if it became a epidemic. But I expect that at some point, the argument will be made that ObamaCare would have prevented the non event about to unfold.
I'm not planning on getting any vaccinations for any flu virus this year or for the next 20 years at this point. I have taken the vaccine in the past, and sure enough, got the flu, most likely from the vaccine itself.
There are two types of vaccines that can be developed. Those that contain only dead virus, and some that contain a mix of dead and living virus. I'm not sure what they are developing with this vaccine. But I don't want any part of either. It is my belief that the vaccine contains more risk to my health than does exposure to the virus in the wild. I am in general good health. I travel all over the place. I was exposed to the virus in Central America in July. I did experience possible symptoms 8 days after the exposure, which is a reasonable incubation period.
The purpose of this whole discussion is to put this event into light, that it could be a political event. Even the CDC is presenting in carefully chosen terms their expressed concerns.
If a year from now, this whole event passes without staggering numbers, which I'm reasonably certain it will, it's time to look at your Government differently. Personally, I do not trust them or their numbers or their science.
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