The Debate Over Whether a Dominant America Is Now on the Decline in the World
The nation's intelligence agencies are the latest to engage in the debate over the future of American power, forecasting a decline in U.S. dominance. The current tumble in the economy has intensified discussion about whether something fundamental is happening in the United States beyond the usual cycles in the economy.
U.S. News's Thomas Omestad recently took a look at the topic in a special report, Is America Really on the Decline? "Even with a bold intervention by Washington to shore up financial markets, the scope and velocity of the made-in-America financial tumble have thrust forward doubts about the future—and the attractiveness—of the freewheeling U.S. capitalist model, about America's true strength overseas, and about the durability of a post-Cold War order with the United States as the unchallenged, full-service superpower," he reported.
Elliot Cohen, the State Department's counselor and a senior adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, does not see the fundamentals of the U.S. power position eroding.
This week, the National Intelligence Council, an analytical grouping of the nation's intelligence agencies, put out a wide-ranging study of the global future in 2025.
Here's what it says about the outlook for American's place in the world:
The United States: Less Dominant Power. By 2025, the United States will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage, albeit still the most powerful one. Even in the military realm, where the United States will continue to possess considerable advantages in 2025, advances by others in science and technology, expanded adoption of irregular warfare tactics by both state and nonstate actors, proliferation of long-range precision weapons, and growing use of cyberwarfare attacks increasingly will constrict U.S. freedom of action.
A more constrained U.S. role has implications for others and the likelihood of new agenda issues being tackled effectively.
Despite the recent rise in anti-Americanism, the United States probably will continue to be seen as a much-needed regional balancer in the Middle East and Asia. The United States will continue to be expected to play a significant role in using its military power to counter global terrorism.
On newer security issues like climate change, U.S. leadership will be widely perceived as critical to leveraging competing and divisive views to find solutions.
At the same time, the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the United States to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships. Developments in the rest of the world, including internal developments in a number of key states—particularly China and Russia—also are likely to be crucial determinants of U.S. policy.
Reader Comments
Is A Dominant America On The Decline In The World
America is not an ignorant country,as described by one commment I just read here. Fact is ,America is a very smart country but seems to have trouble remembering it at this present time.I don't think that the country is on the decline but has just had its confidence shaken a little.The current problems and crises facing the country should make it take a look back through the pages of history and realize that no matter how bad things looked at the time,this country always found its way through and never just threw in the towel.Sure,the situation looks a little dire right now,but its not insurmountable.
OUR WORLD
The USA is a very ignorant country, "America has the vital ingredients for success..." like David said. Yet it also has the vital ingredients for destruction. In the collapse of the US government, the US would take other countries down with it like almost all of Europe, most countries in the Americas and et cetera. The US needs to take drastic changes for our world to survive! I won't just blame it all on the USA of course all countries do need to change and become more environmental and put the closing of mind that all religions do to their believers TO IT'S END.
Low Wages
Rob, you have half the picture. But keep in mind, that America still has some of the highest wages in the world. And you are right in implying that there is nothing wrong with that. And I totally agree. But the question then becomes, who gets the high wages. Do you pay someone who works at Starbucks $40/hr? Many engineers, lawyers, pharmacist, etc. easily earn $40/hr and more.
There was a time when the auto industry was more labor and less technology driven. Today of course, an automobile can be designed entirely on a computer. The entire supply chain is completely computer based. So, who should the $40/hr go to? The person who operates the fork lift or the programmer, database manager, etc. that maintains all information in the supply chain. Not to mention designers of those parts.
I'm not saying that the UAW is unnecessary, they are necessary as a counter weight to big corporations. But have they abused their powers through the years as to give more weight to labor than they should have when there are others jobs that can pay the high wages. Technology becomes the greater driver of good wages.
One only has to look at the long shoreman strike that crippled the West Coast ports a few years back. They are some of the highest paid workers in America. And nothing wrong with seeking out high wages. But the long shoreman PRESERVED thier own jobs by resisting automation and going on strike. And the last I recalled, they got their way. Wouldn't it have been better for them to allow the automation to march forward and join the rank and file of the techies that developed the automation. But no, they didn't do that, they wanted to stay with labor and draw the wages rather than jump on board with the techies.
The issue is that some American just aren't able to make that transition. And so, cheap imports do need to be held at bay to allow for people to transition to more tech intensive jobs. But not everyone is going to go willingly. Hence, it is right to frown on that resistance.
It is time for the money to shift away from labor and more towards the design of new and more fuel efficient vehicle.
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