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Is America Really On the Decline?

Financial crisis. Two wars. Rising rivals. And talk about whether the American era is coming to an end

Posted October 29, 2008

In Australia, protests against American military power.

There have been other body blows to American prestige. The inability to bring closure to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (especially the lengthy bungling of the Iraq occupation), the initial feeble response to Hurricane Katrina, and the regulatory laxity and greed that underlie this year's financial crisis all served to cloud the picture of American pre-eminence. Chinese students are questioning whether they should study American-style business. Mahbubani, the Singaporean analyst and former diplomat, marvels at "a new level of incompetence in America that is puzzling the world."

And yet, for all the deflating news, the time-tested ability of American society to assess and overcome problems should interject caution about proclaiming the American century over and done with. The restorative capacity of America, reasons Thérèse Delpech, a leading French strategic thinker, "is constantly underestimated abroad and even sometimes at home." Those who contend American decline is being exaggerated—or not happening—say that the unipolar moment was never destined to last and that the degree of deference actually accorded to Washington in happier days was never as much as is portrayed. Take, for instance, the disfavor visited on the United States because of its racial segregation and bigotry and a polarizing war in Vietnam.

Nor are doubts about American competence a new factor. Blunders, errors of judgment, the warping of policy by partisan politics, and intemperate rhetoric all are recurring features of U.S. policymaking; nevertheless, American leadership persists. "The U.S. is no good at foreign policy," asserts Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World. He likens the robustness of America's global standing to the muddling through of the comic bumbler Mr. Magoo. "The Bush administration has danced with the world in the worst way," Mead says—but the damage is mostly reversible. "The fundamentals of America's power position in the world," he says, "are probably as strong as they were in 2001."

Rising to the occasion. Further, the current credit crash follows in a long tradition of occasional panics and meltdowns in both the British Empire and the United States. "Those crises haven't sunk us in 300 years," reasons Mead. "We seem to find a way to manage them." Skeptics of U.S. decline believe that other weaknesses are exaggerated and that the U.S. economy remains central. Says George Schwab, president of the New York-based National Committee on American Foreign Policy, "When Wall Street coughs, the rest of the world catches a cold." No other currency, including the euro and the Chinese renminbi, is yet ready to replace the dollar. The economic burdens of leadership are said to be manageable. U.S. defense expenditures today equal 4.2 percent of the nation's GDP, compared with 9 percent in the Vietnam War.

Nor, in general, should the rise of others stir angst, say the anti-declinists. It reflects, by contrast, the near globalization of the U.S.-initiated postwar system, whose very openness should accommodate the peaceful rise of newer powers. "It was American strategy to see them get stronger," says Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and author of The Return of History and the End of Dreams.

The interdependence woven into the existing system creates mutual vulnerabilities that might deter efforts to weaken the United States directly. John Bruton, the European Union ambassador in Washington, says, "If the West goes into decline, so do they." U.S. policy aims to make China a "responsible stakeholder." If China were to sell off its trove of U.S. public debt, it would undercut the value of its own assets. More likely, Beijing sees buying treasury bills as both a good investment and a way to balance a relationship in which it has to sell to the American market to make its long climb out of poverty. "The Asians are not happy about America being so weakened," says Mahbubani.

Reader Comments

Neighbor and state police harassment

I have noticed neighbors using police to do their dirty work.We have neighbors from hell,they sneak around and call the police tell lies on other neighbors.The police come out and never tell you the neighbor accused you of something,treat you like a criminal.You call a lawyer they tell the neighbor has the right of free speach and you have no recourse but to take it.They get a flat tire 200 miles from their home, they call the police and the police come and question you and treat you like a criminal.Their 38 year old son(Kevin) run you off the road,police says nothing they can do about it.The same 38 year old man told my sick wife(60) he was going to kill us,the police said he has the right to state his opinion.

I feel like there is no justice for some in this country and no protection from bullies that pick on their neighbors.They tell lies and the police should ask for evidence,but they come out harassing people for no reason,I have had open heart surgery,cancer surgery,police said they could and would come out anytime of the day or night to harass us and there is nothing we could do about it.

NO LAWYER WILL HELP BECAUSE THEY DON"T WANT TO MAKE THE POLICE ANGRY AT THEM. If you should defend yourself they lock you up and you end up losing your home and your life is over. WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN YOU CAN"T GET POLICE PROTECTION.

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:45 PM [permalink] [report comment]

Neighbor and state police harassment

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:44 PM [permalink] [report comment]

American Decline: Inevitable

I am an investment banker for a bulge bracket working in Asia for now 10 years (started at the onset of the Financial crisis that forced many of the economies and companies in Asia to restructure). I AM American and grew up near Washington D.C, with all the benefits of American education when America was the world envy.

America IS on the decline and have to become prudent, frugal and truly multi-cultural to be able to compete, stay competitive. Yes, the US is VERY comfortable and safe for now. But for those of you with children, take a very hard, objective look at your world and realize your children may not enjoy the financial prosperity in their adult lives as you have now.

US is just NOW coming to grips with its multi cultural population which has been a doubled edged sword - a source of its strength and ability to adapt and attract- resources, talent, financial strenth and size. But also a source of angst with (lets be very honest) discrimination, hate crimes, and bigotry and bias. Other emerging market nations and economies have the demographic problem of shrinking populations but have will quickly develop b/c of a homogenous society that is also very socially stable except in a dozen or so cases - So YES, america does have to compete and is STILL holds many advantages.

Autos, technology, manufacturing, service companies all are waning. How will the US companies, consumers continue to fuel their consumption - US companies manufacturing base has almost all uprooted to developing nations.

It is not time for big, flag waving pep rallies, its time to restructure, re-figure and change mindset. American Pride should continue to make American corporate and policy to work hard. American arrogance will be its downfall

Peter of MD
Nov 10, 2008 02:12:12 AM [permalink] [report comment]

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