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Is America Really On the Decline?

Financial crisis. Two wars. Rising rivals. And talk about whether the American era is coming to an end

Posted October 29, 2008

In Australia, protests against American military power.

Critics point to the hazards inherent in racking up some $10 trillion in public debt—exacerbated now by fresh doubts over American solvency. Says historian Kennedy, "The crisis will confirm in the minds of Asians not to be so fiscally dependent on Uncle Sam." Those foreign investors, suggests Chas. W. Freeman Jr., a former U.S. diplomat in China and Saudi Arabia and president of the Middle East Policy Council, will conclude, "We're not going to finance your improvidence indefinitely." One other vulnerability also looms larger than in the past: energy imports. When Jimmy Carter was urging energy conservation in 1980, the United States imported 37 percent of oil consumed; last year, it was 58 percent.

Something else is different about the current debate over U.S. decline. Without any contraction of its daunting military firepower or the size of its economy, other nations are bound to assume more influential positions. The world geo-political map is being redrawn: Several powers are rising, some rapidly. China takes top billing on the list. Back when economic reforms began in 1978, China contributed but 1 percent of the world's GDP and its trade. Last year, it reached 5 percent of world GDP and 8 percent of trade. China's growth has hummed along at nearly 10 percent annually—for three decades. That is three times the global average.

China's "peaceful rise," as officials call the strategy, aims to restore China to the status it had enjoyed for many centuries: the world's largest economy. A recent Goldman Sachs report has bumped up the time by which China's economy is expected to surpass America's in size to 2027. China's growth is fueling a rapid expansion of military capabilities and, in effect, promoting a model competing with that of the United States—authoritarian capitalism.

At the same time, India, the world's most populous democratic state, has also found a surer path to prosperity that is broadening its influence and enabling a military buildup. Along with the economic recovery of Japan and the growth of what used to be called the "tigers" of South Korea and Southeast Asia, predictions of a "Pacific century" or an Asian one look more plausible. Asia is returning to its historical norms, Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, argues in his book The New Asian Hemisphere. "The era of Western domination has run its course," he writes.

There are shifts elsewhere, too. The once slumbering giant of South America, Brazil, is overcoming its past weaknesses. Russia is undergoing a resurgence of uncertain duration, courtesy of massive sales of oil and natural gas. Its invasion of neighboring Georgia and support for separatist regions there may mark a new period of strategic challenges to the West. Meanwhile, the European Union, in fits and starts, continues to evolve into a more coherent force in global affairs that, as a 27-nation collective, already presents the world's largest economy.

Biggest loser. The world's energy suppliers—especially those along the Persian Gulf—are also gaining strength. Flynt Leverett, director of the New America Foundation's Geopolitics of Energy Initiative, calls the flood of money from oil consumers to producers "arguably the greatest transfer of wealth from one group of countries to another." The "big loser," he says, is the United States. The Gulf Arab states, as a group, may emerge as the world's most important investor. As well, Iran and its regional ambitions will get plenty of sustenance.

Reader Comments

Neighbor and state police harassment

I have noticed neighbors using police to do their dirty work.We have neighbors from hell,they sneak around and call the police tell lies on other neighbors.The police come out and never tell you the neighbor accused you of something,treat you like a criminal.You call a lawyer they tell the neighbor has the right of free speach and you have no recourse but to take it.They get a flat tire 200 miles from their home, they call the police and the police come and question you and treat you like a criminal.Their 38 year old son(Kevin) run you off the road,police says nothing they can do about it.The same 38 year old man told my sick wife(60) he was going to kill us,the police said he has the right to state his opinion.

I feel like there is no justice for some in this country and no protection from bullies that pick on their neighbors.They tell lies and the police should ask for evidence,but they come out harassing people for no reason,I have had open heart surgery,cancer surgery,police said they could and would come out anytime of the day or night to harass us and there is nothing we could do about it.

NO LAWYER WILL HELP BECAUSE THEY DON"T WANT TO MAKE THE POLICE ANGRY AT THEM. If you should defend yourself they lock you up and you end up losing your home and your life is over. WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN YOU CAN"T GET POLICE PROTECTION.

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:45 PM [permalink] [report comment]

Neighbor and state police harassment

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:44 PM [permalink] [report comment]

American Decline: Inevitable

I am an investment banker for a bulge bracket working in Asia for now 10 years (started at the onset of the Financial crisis that forced many of the economies and companies in Asia to restructure). I AM American and grew up near Washington D.C, with all the benefits of American education when America was the world envy.

America IS on the decline and have to become prudent, frugal and truly multi-cultural to be able to compete, stay competitive. Yes, the US is VERY comfortable and safe for now. But for those of you with children, take a very hard, objective look at your world and realize your children may not enjoy the financial prosperity in their adult lives as you have now.

US is just NOW coming to grips with its multi cultural population which has been a doubled edged sword - a source of its strength and ability to adapt and attract- resources, talent, financial strenth and size. But also a source of angst with (lets be very honest) discrimination, hate crimes, and bigotry and bias. Other emerging market nations and economies have the demographic problem of shrinking populations but have will quickly develop b/c of a homogenous society that is also very socially stable except in a dozen or so cases - So YES, america does have to compete and is STILL holds many advantages.

Autos, technology, manufacturing, service companies all are waning. How will the US companies, consumers continue to fuel their consumption - US companies manufacturing base has almost all uprooted to developing nations.

It is not time for big, flag waving pep rallies, its time to restructure, re-figure and change mindset. American Pride should continue to make American corporate and policy to work hard. American arrogance will be its downfall

Peter of MD
Nov 10, 2008 02:12:12 AM [permalink] [report comment]

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