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Is America Really On the Decline?

Financial crisis. Two wars. Rising rivals. And talk about whether the American era is coming to an end

Posted October 29, 2008

In Australia, protests against American military power.

The new decline debate has reached a full boil just as Americans are electing a new president. Bush administration officials dismiss the talk of decline as a predictable and episodic ritual. "We've been here before," says Eliot Cohen, Rice's counselor and a leading neoconservative foreign policy figure. "It is periodically fashionable to talk about how the United States is all washed up." No doubt, other low points have occasioned bouts of declinist gloom. Take the 1970s, with the painful setbacks of Vietnam, Watergate, stagflation, and musings about "malaise." Many analysts, here and overseas, saw the geopolitical advantage shifting toward the Soviet Union—an assessment that, in retrospect, seems ludicrous. In the mid- and late-1980s, concerns about a debilitating American "imperial overstretch" failed to come true. Japan, with its industrial success and high-profile acquisitions of American assets, was pegged by some to have attained a trajectory that would eclipse U.S. economic might—another short-lived projection.

This time, however, might not turn out as well for America, some analysts worry, because the trends eroding America's pre-eminence run deeper. "It's not simply that we've run into a rough patch, shaking our self-confidence," warns Andrew Bacevich, an international affairs specialist at Boston University and author of this year's The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism. "It's different this time." That there is some sort of big change is widely accepted, even mainstream. Defense Secretary Robert Gates now speaks of a "multipolar world." In its 2007 annual survey, the International Institute for Strategic Studies referred to "the profound loss of authority suffered by the United States since its invasion of Iraq."

Diminished dominance. Yet more troubling was the vista painted by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst. Foreshadowing a conclusion of a coming report called "Global Trends 2025," he said in September that "American dominance will be much diminished over this period of time" and "will erode at an accelerating pace with the partial exception of the military." In future competition, he added, the military will be "the least significant" factor. Fingar labeled U.S. pre-eminence since World War II a "truly anomalous situation." Indeed, shifts in economic and military power—played out slowly, over decades and centuries—are the norm, as Yale historian Paul Kennedy pointed out in his 1988 work, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Some analysts conclude that if the reality of America's power position has changed, so must American attitudes. "We should disenthrall ourselves from the idea that the well-being and security of the United States can only be attained by seeking to maintain primacy," says Bacevich.

In any case, the new financial shock is rattling a load-bearing pillar of American strength—its role as global financial superpower, including its privileged position as issuer of the world's favored reserve currency, the U.S. dollar. The dollar's special role has been critically important. It allows the federal government to affordably cover budget and current account deficits. The Feds are selling about half the new national debt to foreign investors, including governments like China's and sovereign wealth funds like those in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. That has bridged the yawning U.S. fiscal gap, financing, in effect, global military activities and domestic spending without sparking inflation or driving up the interest cost of such monumental borrowing. It has also allowed Americans to maintain a notoriously low net savings rate.

Reader Comments

Neighbor and state police harassment

I have noticed neighbors using police to do their dirty work.We have neighbors from hell,they sneak around and call the police tell lies on other neighbors.The police come out and never tell you the neighbor accused you of something,treat you like a criminal.You call a lawyer they tell the neighbor has the right of free speach and you have no recourse but to take it.They get a flat tire 200 miles from their home, they call the police and the police come and question you and treat you like a criminal.Their 38 year old son(Kevin) run you off the road,police says nothing they can do about it.The same 38 year old man told my sick wife(60) he was going to kill us,the police said he has the right to state his opinion.

I feel like there is no justice for some in this country and no protection from bullies that pick on their neighbors.They tell lies and the police should ask for evidence,but they come out harassing people for no reason,I have had open heart surgery,cancer surgery,police said they could and would come out anytime of the day or night to harass us and there is nothing we could do about it.

NO LAWYER WILL HELP BECAUSE THEY DON"T WANT TO MAKE THE POLICE ANGRY AT THEM. If you should defend yourself they lock you up and you end up losing your home and your life is over. WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN YOU CAN"T GET POLICE PROTECTION.

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:45 PM [permalink] [report comment]

Neighbor and state police harassment

Chad of MD
Dec 23, 2008 19:57:44 PM [permalink] [report comment]

American Decline: Inevitable

I am an investment banker for a bulge bracket working in Asia for now 10 years (started at the onset of the Financial crisis that forced many of the economies and companies in Asia to restructure). I AM American and grew up near Washington D.C, with all the benefits of American education when America was the world envy.

America IS on the decline and have to become prudent, frugal and truly multi-cultural to be able to compete, stay competitive. Yes, the US is VERY comfortable and safe for now. But for those of you with children, take a very hard, objective look at your world and realize your children may not enjoy the financial prosperity in their adult lives as you have now.

US is just NOW coming to grips with its multi cultural population which has been a doubled edged sword - a source of its strength and ability to adapt and attract- resources, talent, financial strenth and size. But also a source of angst with (lets be very honest) discrimination, hate crimes, and bigotry and bias. Other emerging market nations and economies have the demographic problem of shrinking populations but have will quickly develop b/c of a homogenous society that is also very socially stable except in a dozen or so cases - So YES, america does have to compete and is STILL holds many advantages.

Autos, technology, manufacturing, service companies all are waning. How will the US companies, consumers continue to fuel their consumption - US companies manufacturing base has almost all uprooted to developing nations.

It is not time for big, flag waving pep rallies, its time to restructure, re-figure and change mindset. American Pride should continue to make American corporate and policy to work hard. American arrogance will be its downfall

Peter of MD
Nov 10, 2008 02:12:12 AM [permalink] [report comment]

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