What Obama Didn't Say in His 18-Month Iraq Withdrawal Timetable

President Obama's announcement of an 18-month timeline today for withdrawing U.S. combat forces from Iraq included a notable nod to his U.S. military commanders. "Let there be no doubt," he acknowledged during a visit to Camp Lejeune, N.C. "Iraq is not yet secure." He added that "too many fundamental questions remain unresolved."

President Barack Obama addresses military personnel at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune.

No one is more aware of this point than the U.S. military. President Obama's plan to bring U.S. troops home ultimately represents a compromise between top U.S. military commanders on the ground in Iraq—who pushed for a slower-than-16-month timeline while warning the president and his advisers that Iraq could still backslide into violence—and those within the administration and on Capitol Hill who were backing a speedier withdrawal.

The military's biggest cause for concern was left unmentioned during Obama's speech. Within the halls of the Pentagon, the talk these days often turns to the worrisome tensions between Kurds and Arabs in Iraq. Both groups continue to vie for power, particularly in the still-volatile northern regions of Kirkuk and Mosul.

Indeed, a number of senior military commanders cite the potential for Arab-Kurdish violence as the greatest challenge that Iraq now faces. There are also considerable worries that the Iraqi Ministry of Defense is continuing to drag its feet on the matter of integrating Kurdish forces into Iraq's national army.

Military analysts are emphasizing one element of Obama's plan that they hope will buy U.S. forces more time to help resolve these concerns. By August 2010, the U.S. combat mission in Iraq will end. But "combat" mission is the key.

The Status of Forces Agreement signed late last year already stipulates that U.S. combat forces have to be out of all Iraqi cities by June of this year. In response, Gen. Raymond Odierno, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, last year said that U.S. troops would continue their work as "trainers" at the joint security stations that they share with Iraqi counterparts in cities throughout the country. Though they are combat troops in many regards, calling these U.S. forces "trainers" allows them to stay in the cities and continue to work with Iraqi security forces.

These security stations were a vital element of the surge strategy, and they are widely credited with helping to control violence in the cities. While U.S. combat troops must be out by mid-2010, up to 50,000 U.S. troops are expected to stay in a training capacity until December 2011.

With Obama's announcement today, however, U.S. military commanders note that the clock has begun ticking. Now, they add, the hard work of implementing the withdrawal plan begins. 

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