For U.S. Troops in Iraq, a Way to Come Home

For years around the halls of the Pentagon, well-trained Iraqi troops seemed to be the holy grail. Capable Iraqi forces were seen as the ticket out for U.S. soldiers, yet privately, some senior military officials admitted to doubting whether it was one that would be punched anytime soon. This was particularly true given the wealth of tales—some comical, some gravely troubling—about corruption and ineptitude within Iraq's nascent security forces.

Soldiers in the US Army's 172nd Infantry Brigade patrol in front of campaign posters in Mussayeb, Iraq.

Today, the vision of competent Iraqi soldiers and police officers has largely come to fruition, military officials say. They have certainly proved helpful in the face of the country's highly anticipated elections, which put some 440 hotly contested provincial council seats up for grabs. After months of warning that Iraq's progress to date is fragile and reversible, U.S. officials are closely watching the polls and their aftermath as an indication of whether the country is truly on solid ground. That will in turn determine how tricky it will be to move major combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months, a top goal of the Obama administration.

One point in Iraq's favor, according to senior military officials, is firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's move to Iran, where he is immersed in religious studies. Long a thorn in the side of the U.S. military in Iraq, Sadr's movement is splintered, weakened, and—equally important, say U.S. analysts—out of fashion. The most powerful Sadrist militia, the Mahdi Army, reached the height of its strength in 2006, but as it grew, smaller branches were increasingly self-financed through extortion networks, which turned locals against them. Although Sadr's influence has dissipated for now, it remains, in the words of one military analyst, "still latent," and Sadr's studies will very likely increase his future credibility and stature.

The drawdown of U.S. forces also hinges on the integration of the Sunni-driven Sons of Iraq, a nationwide neighborhood-watch militia, into the Shiite-dominated Army and police forces. The government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was accused of sectarianism last year when it arrested several prominent Sunni members of the SOI. Senior U.S. officials said there was some evidence of criminal activity and they would monitor the situation closely.

And while key Republican congressmen in Washington continue to issue warnings about the perils of a precipitous withdrawal, some crucial decisions have already been made. For the first time, troop units originally destined for Iraq are now arriving in Afghanistan. The new Status of Forces agreement negotiated by the Bush administration requires that U.S. troops be out of Iraqi cities by June and out of the country by 2012.

Most important, of course, is Obama's election. Senior military officials under Commander in Chief Bush explained that in Iraq, they did what they must, while in Afghanistan, they did what they could. Under Obama, that is already changing. But more soldiers need to leave Iraq if the United States is going to further increase troop levels in a rapidly deteriorating Afghanistan. Iraq, however, will continue to need a sizable contingent of U.S. support troops in areas like aviation. And that means some considerable challenges for Pentagon planners in months to come.

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