With Palin Effect Fading, Polls Find Women Sticking With Obama in Swing States
Women account for a majority of Obama’s supporters in nationwide surveys
Throughout September, as the "Sarah Palin effect" seemed to buoy John McCain's campaign, Democrats worried about how Barack Obama could woo women voters in a race without Hillary Clinton. Yet recent polling data shows that women appear to be sticking more closely to their traditional Democratic leanings than many pundits had speculated.
A review of polls compiled weekly by Rutgers University's Center for American Women finds that, in 14 key battleground states, more women favor Obama than McCain.
Women also make up a larger percentage of Obama's supporters. In Colorado, for example, one recent poll showed that 54 percent of voters for Obama were women, while only 42 percent were men, a gender gap of 12 points. National polls from the past two weeks echo the same trend, showing gender gaps of anywhere from 4 to 11 percentage points. Historically, this fits: A gender gap, where women vote differently than men, has existed in every election since 1980. In 2004, women were 7 percentage points less likely than their male counterparts to vote for Bush.
Even white women, the bloc that some expected to shift most toward the McCain-Palin camp, have settled into their traditional pattern. Recent Gallup polls show 48 percent of white women planning to cast ballots for McCain, compared to 44 percent for Obama--hardly a dramatic split considering President Bush carried white women by 11 points against John Kerry in 2004. One recent poll suggests that the trend is moving even further, concluding that white women prefer Obama to McCain by 3 percentage points.
Despite the high-profile addition of a woman to the general election, several trends are shaping the female vote along historical lines, experts say. First, any gender-based bounce Sarah Palin may have given the Republican campaign largely has faded.
"What we saw when Sarah Palin was first put on the ticket was a real interest in the story, in the narrative of Sarah Palin," said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center of American Women and Politics. Instead, there has been more scrutiny of her readiness to lead, even as most voters appear to be turning their focus back to the candidate at the top of the ticket.
Another factor is that economic issues have moved to the front of most voters' minds, a trend that tends to push both male and female voters toward the Democratic candidate. On top of that, women are "more economically vulnerable" than men, says Susan Carroll, a senior scholar at the Rutgers center. Almost two thirds of minimum wage earners are female, and a disproportionate number of women rank near the bottom of America's wage earners, she said.
In a tight race like this one, women will have a strong influence. After all, nearly 9 million more women voted than their male counterparts in 2004.
Reader Comments
McCain a short fuse Palin a dim candle
It is not a smart or safe thing to elect McCain and his hair trigger temper and put him in a position of total power, if he loses his temper with a reporter, or in a debate how can this guy think he can deal with the world. McCain has a short fuse and is getting a little slow on reason and seems to have no problem tossing out ethics to win as he has run to the extreme right that is tearing the republican party in pieces. Palin thinks Barney is a real dinosaur and the Flintstones was a documentary. As she runs with the same wing nuts that are destroying the republican party and at the extreme they are as nutting as the Iranians, So the last thing America needs is a dim candle and a short fuse in charge.
Hopfully not only with Obama and Joe from Scranton win but hopefully after the election is over the republican party will go home and give it self an exorcism as a man once said.
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel and religion is the first. It only goes to show haw bad and for how long our schools have been failing to teach kids, and now some of the kids are grown up to be old fools. Like Barry Goldwater said when McCain came to Arizona, McCain is a carpetbagger. I think looking at what the far right economic trickle down economic plan has done, we have been carpet bagged enough. America does not need narrow greedy people wanting more needful things filled with hateful talk. We need solutions of the middle class and for our kids future. Time to put the mavericks back in the Crawford coral. McCain has 7 houses, and a 100 million dollars, and he is tight as a tic. If Barry was alive he would vote for Obama
Smearing Obama
People who call Obama a socialist are either ignorant or lying. The ignorant ones, it seems to me, are just trumpeting what they hear from conservative know-nothings who have a stake in smearing Obama.
For those who are looking for an intelligent, calm, mature, thoughtful leader, Barack Obama is indeed the only choice.
Also, for middle class Americans who want someone who understands their lives, I have an interesting fact for you.
Barack Obama: One house, one car (American)
John McCain: 8 houses, 13 cars (three foreign)
So who is the elite here? John McCain has over 100 million dollars and is focused on looking out for wealthy people. Barack Obama is for all the rest of us.
women are "more economically vulnerable" than men, says Susan Carroll
rebeca of TX is either a male, or a female contributing to the fact that women are the other half of the world population being the usually underpaid and easily replaced underdog.
Women should be the 'underdog' because God gave them the responsibility to carry and raise the future ??! Women in the US, and in other places of yesterday and today are subject to "politics" of males who think they know how to run and rule the world.
(reminder: the world is a hell to a lot of people, thanks to the "leaders")
Obama rather has an "ol boy" as running mate. That already speaks for itself.
By the way Obama is indeed a socialist. American education or yours is lacking if you think he is not.
And all his wealthy friends just have the money to keep him as a hobby.
They feel guilty for living in wealth every day, and taxes don't hurt if you have quite enough. Then, at the same time, they need the "underdog" to watch or buy whatever is making them more cash.
Obama needs a band-aid for his soul. Big house, big education and a big need to forget feeling guilty for all the spread wealth in the Obama household.
Next thing you know the US is a second Europe. Not a place to immigrate to make living or start a business, but a place to get free money every month, paid for by the stess out tax payer.
Be generous, help your neighbour, support charity and SHARE your wealth, don't let some "leader" with the x.. factor do it for you.
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