Poll Shows Obama Holds Strong Lead Against McCain in Swing State Iowa
The Democratic nominee is ahead by double digits, but GOP focus on voter turnout could keep it in play
A new poll out of Iowa shows that Democratic nominee Barack Obama has built a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in a state that the Democrats hope to flip to their column come fall.
The poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register by Selzer and Co., shows Obama favored by 52 percent of likely Hawkeye state voters and McCain by 40 percent. The survey was conducted after both recent party conventions and the emergence of the GOP vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin.
Pollster J. Ann Selzer says that Palin's nomination and the McCain campaign's increasing reliance on campaign tactics honed by Karl Rove during the Bush presidential runs suggest that there is still play in Iowa. "The opportunity the Palin effect affords McCain is a ground game he didn't have before," Selzer told U.S. News this morning. "This is not visible in the polls. But with the Rovian turn the McCain campaign has taken, I would expect the George Bush 2004 playbook to go into effect."
That means, she said, rallies where supporters will be instructed on how to get out the vote, helping pump up turnout in heavily Republican areas of the state. "If the Democrats start to feel disillusioned—if Obama can't rejoin the fight," she says, "then the ground game could, as it was in 2004, be the final arbiter of whether Iowa stays red or returns to blue."
That being said, Obama's numbers are strong, and "for today," Selzer says, "Iowa seems like a stronghold for the senator from Illinois."
The state went for Bush in 2004 by a narrow margin, but the Democratic ticket won Iowa in 2000.
Reader Comments
PAC proudly endorses Sen. Barack Obama
it is with great enthusiasm that I announce today, on behalf of the nation's oldest and largest women's rights organization, that the National Organization for Women Political Action Committee (NOW PAC) proudly endorses Sen. Barack Obama for President of the United States.
It is no coincidence that I am joined in this announcement by so many allied organizations that collectively represent a broad and diverse cross-section of U.S. women. From teachers to social workers, from business owners to college students, women in this country are lining up behind the candidate who is out there every day standing up -- clearly and consistently -- for women. Women of all ages, races and ethnicities are coming together in support of Sen. Obama and his pledge to fulfill this country's promise of equal opportunity for our daughters as well as all our sons.
Although it is very unusual for us to endorse in a presidential election, this is an unprecedented candidate and an unprecedented time for our country. The NOW PAC reviewed Sen. Obama's record and public statements on issues that disproportionately affect the women of this nation, and I spoke with him at length about his commitment to women's equality. For example:
On pay equity. Sen. Obama is a co-sponsor of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act and the Paycheck Fairness Act, legislation to end wage discrimination against women.
On reproductive rights. Sen. Obama is a co-sponsor of the Prevention First Act, to strengthen access to contraception and reproductive health care, and prevent unwanted pregnancies. He strongly supports Roe v. Wade and will oppose any efforts to overturn it.
On violence against women. Sen. Obama supports the continued reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act -- of which Sen. Joe Biden is the chief sponsor -- as well as the Security and Financial Empowerment (SAFE) Act, which is legislation to provide legal, medical and financial support to victims of domestic violence.
On the Supreme Court. Sen. Obama opposed the nominations of George Bush's extreme right-wing nominees to the Supreme Court, who have consistently ruled against women's rights,
For more than a decade, Barack Obama has said "yes" to women's rights, while John McCain has consistently said "no" - NO to pay equity, NO to contraceptive access and reproductive rights, NO to appointing Supreme Court judges who will uphold women's rights and civil rights, NO to funding shelters and other anti-violence programs, and NO to supporting working moms and dads with policies that support work/life balance.
NOW supported Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary, and now we join with her in saying "NO" -- No Way, No How, No McCain! And we proudly stand arm-in-arm with her in putting our hopes and our dreams, our hard work and our hard-earned money, behind the next President of the United States -- Barack Obama, and his running mate, longtime friend and ally of women, Sen. Joe Biden.
This Iowa girl is pretty happy!
This is the best news I've heard in a long time. About time my state turns blue again! I can't vote yet; but other fellow Iowans; keep up the Obama love!
My advise to B. Obama
In 2000 before Pres. Clinton left office, our economy, foreign
policy, and everything was perfect indeed.If Pepublicans can take on Demecrats, and tied Gore with Clinton, why the Demecrats
can fail inh terms of this bad digraceful crisis ib the country?
Obama, please stand up!!!.
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