5 Voting Groups to Watch this Presidential Cycle

McCain is counting on support from Hispanic voters to help him win key states.

This isn't surprising. Women, as part of what political scientists like to call the "gender gap," generally trend Democratic. Fifty-four percent of women voted for Al Gore in 2000, compared with 43 percent of women who voted for Bush. And John Kerry received 51 percent of the female vote, while Bush took 48 percent. "Women will elect the next president, and their rate of enthusiasm will determine it," explains Lake, adding that Obama should be able to win if he can garner more than 50 percent of the women's vote. "Women voted for Kerry, but only by 3 points, which was overwhelmed by the enthusiasm of men for Bush."

The wild card this election cycle, at least for a while, was Clinton and whether her embittered supporters would still vote Democratic, flock to McCain, or stay at home. Lake says that it is more likely that Obama will chip away Clinton supporters from McCain than vice versa. And that could happen soon, with Clinton joining Obama on the campaign trail in Nevada and Florida.

Youth

Facing a recent panel of some of the most prominent political pundits, a young woman in the audience had one simple question. How, she asked, could young people prove that they were informed members of the electorate? In the primaries, she told the audience at a panel hosted by the Student Association for Voter Empowerment, there was a perception that young people were merely influenced to vote by "hope," a buzzword of Obama's presidential campaign, and not actually by issues. "I feel like there is a bias—that our voices don't count," she complained.

The answer, from panelist and PBS journalist Judy Woodruff, probably didn't satisfy the questioner. "If you vote, if you make a difference in this election, the media is going to pay attention," Woodruff said.

The only problem is that voting—or failing to vote—has always been the issue when it comes to youth. Since 1972, the first election in which 18-to-20-year-olds were eligible to vote, turnout among the under-30 crowd has steadily declined. In 2004, this trend seemed to turn around as the number of young voters increased. Get-out-the-vote organizations touted the fact that there were 4.2 million more voters under 30 than there were in 2000.

But this statistic doesn't tell the whole story. Since turnout was up overall in 2004, the youth vote represented 17 percent of the electorate—the same percentage as in 2000. There was a slightly better tale in 2006, as young voters helped propel Jim Webb in Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana into the Senate. But overall, despite frequent hopes, this voting bloc has yet to determine the outcome of a presidential election.

This year, there's perhaps even more hype surrounding the youth vote, and it could actually be warranted. Primary turnout among young people doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled in many states, compared with primaries in 2000 and 2004, according to Rock the Vote, a youth-oriented voter registration group that often partners with entertainment companies. In some communities, more young voters are registering, and anecdotal reports suggest more young people are volunteering for the campaigns as well. "You don't write off anyone," says Matt Segal, the executive director of SAVE, who encourages both of the candidates to ramp up their efforts to attract the youth vote. "Young voters are susceptible to the politicians who reach out to them." A swing state like Wisconsin might go to Obama if young people turn out in large numbers, as some suggest they will. If they're right, that really would be a change.