5 Voting Groups to Watch this Presidential Cycle

McCain is counting on support from Hispanic voters to help him win key states.

At least one thing is clear—it's not going to be a repeat of 2004. "Evangelicals are not monolithic, and in this particular election they seem to be more diverse than they were in 2004," Green says. "They can either stay home or make a choice—John McCain or Barack Obama—however difficult that choice may be."

African-Americans

Since 1964, when federal poll taxes were finally outlawed and Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater campaigned for president by courting "backlash" voters opposed to the civil rights movement, African-Americans have voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. Bill Clinton enjoyed a particularly strong rapport with African-American voters in the 1990s. George W. Bush captured just 11 percent of the African-American vote in 2004—and even that was better than many of his Republican predecessors managed.

This year, there is an obvious difference. As an African-American, Obama has been warmly embraced by black voters. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 95 percent of likely African-American voters say they plan to vote for Obama in November, a number that exceeds not only the 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 advantage he held over Hillary Clinton in many state primaries but also the level of support the Rev. Jesse Jackson achieved in his 1988 presidential bid.

The African-American community's support for Obama was not automatic. Clinton, bolstered by her husband's long-standing ties to the black community, initially enjoyed a sizable advantage over Obama. One poll in January 2007 gave her a 24 percentage-point lead. By Super Tuesday, however, there had been a reversal, as Bill Clinton explained at the time: "The minute it became possible that [Obama] could be the nominee, he was going to win the lion's share of the African-American vote." (The former president's racially tinged comments before the South Carolina primary arguably abetted the trend.)

Obama's resonance with black voters could have profound election-night implications, although any such prediction is contingent upon turnout. Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, all won by Bush in 2004, have been mentioned as states that could be turned blue by a record turnout of African-American voters. There is also some speculation that Georgia, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1992, has at least an outside chance of tipping into Obama's column, given the state's large African-American population. Because turnout rates there would most likely have to increase by more than 50 percent, it's a daunting challenge, but one the Obama campaign appears to think is worth mounting. It spent more than $200,000 on tele-vision advertising in Georgia between April and June. Several thousand volunteers, meanwhile, have been dispatched nationwide to boost registration and voter turnout.

Women

At a Washington social event several weeks ago to celebrate New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney's new book on gender discrimination, Hillary Clinton received an impassioned reception from the mostly female crowd. Maloney touted Clinton's accomplishment of nearly breaking the glass ceiling and credited, in part, misogyny and sexism for bringing the former first lady down. But her admirers weren't bashing Barack Obama. And some members sported large, red "Hillary Supports Obama—So Do I!!" pins.

Even in the most pro-Clinton environment, the post-Clinton reality was afoot. While some former supporters aren't exactly gung-ho about the Illinois senator—with only 12 percent saying recently that they were excited about Obama, according to an Associated Press and Yahoo! News poll—Democratic women have mostly coalesced around Obama. Seventy-six percent of female former Clinton supporters plan to vote for Obama, while 18 percent plan to support McCain, according to a Lifetime Networks poll last month.

More broadly, Obama is doing well with women in general, leading McCain 49 percent to 38 percent nationally. Ten percent remain undecided. Further, 81 percent of Democratic women surveyed said they would vote for Obama, and 81 percent of Republican women said they would vote for McCain. Obama's advantage comes from women who say they are independent; among them, Obama leads 42 percent to McCain's 30 percent. "Both candidates have solidified the women in their base," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who worked on the Lifetime poll. "And now it's a battle for the independent women, who are leaning pretty substantially for Obama."