The Superdelegate Showdown Might be Key to the Democratic Nomination
Both Clinton and Obama are fighting for support from this key group
After Indiana's and North Carolina's primaries on May 6, the next are in West Virginia May 13, Kentucky and Oregon May 20, Puerto Rico June 1, and Montana and South Dakota June 3. It's very likely that neither candidate will roll up a big string of wins. Indiana is a tossup. Obama is favored in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, while Clinton is expected to win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico.
While Clinton has enjoyed what she called a surge in contributions and pledges of up to $10 million in the 24 hours after her Pennsylvania win, her campaign remains in debt. Obama already has millions of dollars available for the next round of contests, and the money keeps pouring in. Clearly, Obama has an advantage in the money war.
Beyond that, Obama and his surrogates argue not only that he has the most delegates but that he has also won the most states, territories, and the District of Columbia. And with nine contests remaining, Clinton cannot surpass him in the number of states won. Obama also tells superdelegates that he has a half-million-vote lead in the popular vote, at least in contests approved by the national party.
Obama says he is best positioned to attract new voters, young people, independents, affluent suburbanites, and African-Americans and to capitalize on growing anti-Washington sentiments in the electorate and an overwhelming desire for change and reconciliation. He also says he can carry states that haven't been in play for the Democrats in recent years, such as Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Clinton is using a variety of arguments in courting the superdelegates. First of all, she says that if Florida and Michigan are counted, she is actually ahead in the popular vote because she won both states. The problem is that the two states held their primaries too early, in violation of DNC rules, and the candidates boycotted them at the DNC's request. The DNC also disqualified all their delegates. Clinton now wants the results counted. Obama says that's unfair, since the candidates agreed not to campaign there. The party hasn't found a way to resolve the dispute.
Clinton, hoping to stir up "buyer's remorse," says Obama is only now showing his vulnerabilities as the media finally scrutinize him. Clinton says "the tide is turning" and Obama has shown that he can't win the big swing states such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; that he is unpopular among white working-class voters who will be crucial in the swing states; that the states where he is strongest won't generate as many electoral votes as the states where Clinton is strongest. Clinton also argues that Obama can't stand up to the "Republican attack machine," which Clinton has overcome before, and that her background is well known, while Obama's past is still unclear.
The superdelegate system that is so controversial today was devised in 1982 by the Commission on Presidential Nominations, a special DNC panel chaired by then North Carolina Gov. James Hunt. At the time, the party was trying to limit the impact of primaries after George McGovern, backed by a cadre of ideological activists, used the direct democracy of those contests to win the nomination in 1972 and Jimmy Carter did the same to win renomination in 1980. Both were demolished in the general election, McGovern by Richard Nixon and Carter by Ronald Reagan.
The superdelegates were created to give automatic voting power to members of the party establishment who would cast their ballots independently, without being tied to the results of primaries and caucuses. They were empowered to choose the best candidate and not be swayed by the moods and passions of the moment or organized factions that could dominate the primaries.
What has caused so many complications this year is the extremely close race waged by Obama and Clinton. Their support is based in almost equal measure on competing mainstream forces within the party—such as advocates of change who back Obama and backers of party traditions who support Clinton. These are not the reckless left-wing firebrands or ideological factions that the party leaders feared in 1982. Another complication has been the proportional system for awarding delegates, rather than the Republicans' winner-take-all approach. This guarantees that even the loser of a primary will receive enough delegates to keep the race alive and prolong the fight.
Reader Comments
He's American! Good For him
I do not have much to say, but I felt it necessary to put in my two cents concerning Mr. Obama (considering that I will barely miss putting in my two cents in November). I have listened to all the comments concerning Obama's lack of experience, his Chicago "homies", his slip up with the 57 states of America, his pastor's opinions, and much more than worth repeating here. But do you know what I hear when I listen to all these comments? A normal American. Obama is not something fantastic, but neither are we. Why do we expect perfection when we cannot live up to that ourselves? We should judge Obama like we judge everyone else; is he a decent guy? Seems so. Is he intelligent? Better than most. Is he Honest? For a, politician--sure. He's made a few goof-ups sure, but no worse than the experienced people. I figure it's about time to let the new kid on the block have a chance at the wheel.
If Obama has just been thrown into the sea of politics; he's doggie-paddling (same as most of us would be). And I would prefer to have this country run by someone doing their own swimming.
To All Superdelegates
West Virginia just tried to send a loud and resounding message to the Democratic Party; we do not want Obama as the nominee. Obama and the party just shrug off the win as insignificant. The Democratic Party is not listening which begs one to ask why? What is the hidden agenda? Obama comes from a radical black theological church as witness by the tapes of Rev. Wright. His beliefs are the same as his pastor (even his pastor tried to tell the public this fact). This man will not unite this country. Obama will pull its guts apart and spread them across the nation, which should be clear to even to everyone by now. The Democratic Party has selected a man that does not even know how many states we have in the Union as witness by his 57 or 58 states with two to go comment. His Chicago criminal friends seem to be an asset to him rather than a disadvantage. Obama has money and “greed” will help him along this path. This vote obviously will come down to the Superdelegates. Are there any Superdelegates left with respect for America; a reverence for citizens who have given the ultimate of sacrifice “their lives” so that America will be the land of “freedom and choice”? This is not race issue; this is a man that should not be President of the United States because of his character.
Mother Day Reflection on Electon Campaign 2008.
Mother Day Reflection on Election Campaign 2008 :
Obama and Black supportors reminisced wrestlers whose matches are pre-arranged and play by hitting under the belt theatric causing economic downturn just to win. So, stop watching American games. Obama's white supportors are insulting their own race as incompetent and incapable of managing their own country . Whether Obama will be elected his "super delegates", who endorsed at other's expense, must be sentenced to live in Black neighborhoods for more than four years to find out what they are really like. The democratic governor of Oklahoma who had just endorsed Obama must be executed for causing their supernatural tornadoes. The communication media of the U. S. are circus clowns not worth commenting on because they have never given any honest election comments. Hillary Clinton, best American candidate in history, can be identified with a unspoiling mother who has wasted her own $10 mllion just to warn her stubborn and ignorance daughter not to date strangers in the street. American voters in general are "blind" to good judgement. Happy Mother Day!
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