Clinton and Obama Locked in Tight Race in Indiana
Independents and Republicans could be the key to the Democratic presidential primary in the Hoosier State
It's the kind of political hullabaloo the Hoosiers haven't seen up close in 40 years. In the days leading up to Indiana's primary on Tuesday, the presidential candidates have bombarded the state. They've dominated Indiana's airwaves, they've showed up at Indiana's gas stations gasping at the high prices, and they've sat on Indiana's picnic tables and listened to the Hoosiers' qualms.
The state hasn't held an important Democratic primary since Bobby Kennedy was running for the presidency in 1968, and it has been so reliably red in general elections that candidates seldom stop in. But this time around, Indiana is playing the role of political barometer. It is seen as one of the last states where Hillary Clinton's campaign can boast that the tide is turning in her direction or Barack Obama's campaign can claim that this nomination is all but wrapped up. Indiana has become not necessarily a must-win (neither campaign will go that far) but a should-win in order for either candidate to clinch the nomination.
Last week an Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll had Obama 3 points ahead of Clinton, but that was before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy resurfaced. In a Rasmussen poll that came out Thursday (after Wright's inflammatory remarks and Obama's strong words denouncing the pastor), Clinton had pulled ahead of Obama by 5 points, and in a Zogby poll out Friday, the two candidates were tied. And in all of these polls, 9 percent or more have said that they are still undecided.
"I think people legitimately know that they are going to participate," says pollster Ann Selzer, whose company conducted the Indianapolis Star poll. "They're just still having an internal debate within themselves on who is the right candidate." In previous primaries, those waiting to decide until the last minute have generally favored Clinton, but Selzer says this time around it's too early to say. "I think at this point it's hard to tell who the undecideds are going to break for," she says.
The demographics allow for a clean split. While Indiana, similar to Pennsylvania, is considered part of the rust belt (which could be favorable to Clinton), it also nudges up against Illinois, the home state of Obama. Northwestern Indiana shares a media market with Chicago, which is one of Obama's strongholds.
There are some factors that differentiate Indiana from the primary in Pennsylvania, where Clinton pummeled Obama by 9 points in April. Indiana's population is slightly younger—which could help Obama, who has done well with younger Democrats,—but it's also slightly more rural and white, which could give Clinton a boost. "What seems to be the pattern is that she will do better downstate," says Edward Carmines, a professor of political science at Indiana University-Bloomington. "And he will do better in the western and northern part that borders Illinois." There are about equal pockets of support coming from different areas of Indiana.
Even the endorsements seem to be evenly divided. Clinton has been accompanied for months by former governor and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and was endorsed Friday by the Indianapolis Star. Obama, on the other hand, recently picked up the endorsement of Rep. Baron Hill and also that of Hoosier DNC member Joe Andrew, who early on had endorsed Clinton but switched his allegiance to Obama on Thursday.
The big wild card could be that independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in Indiana's Democratic primary. "In Indiana you have an open primary, which really lets the flood gates open," says Selzer. In the Indianapolis Star poll, Democrats favored Obama and Clinton evenly, but both Republicans and independents favored Obama by 10 points. "It is really the independents and some crossover Republicans who are giving Obama a lead," says Selzer. "There is a dead tie among Democrats."
It'll all be speculation until Tuesday, when Hoosiers will be joined by voters in North Carolina to make the big presidential pick. North Carolina has long been considered Obama territory, though Clinton has recently trimmed his lead. In Indiana, it will take hefty voter turnout, and probably some help from independents and "Obamicans," for the Hoosier State to turn into Obama territory too.
Reader Comments
Don't Count Obama Out!
It is so amazing that some Americans are counting Barack Obama out of the Presidental race because he lost to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. We all knew that he would. Hillary was supposed to win in that State. That was not a surprise, but some would like you to believe that it's over. How do you figure that? Senator Obama is still ahead across the board. He will, in the very near future, get the support of the remaining Superdelegates. They are just waiting to see the outcome of the final races. Hillary and Bill Clinton do not deserve to be back in the White House. Bill Clinton disgraced the Oval Office with his infidelities, and Hillary stood by his side in disgrace. Her ultimate plan was to stay by her husband's side so that this very day would come. She had no other choice but to stay to with her husband to reach her political goal. Obama on the other hand, is seen as a morale, family man who treasures his beautiful wife and children and would never disgrace their honor personally or in America's eye. Everyone wants to focus on Obama's past preacher, but that is all that can be focused on and nothing else. That, too should not even be an issue because Obama has no control on what others feel or say in any situation. Hillary has been caught in out and out lies as well as her husband Bill throughout this campaign. Everyone speaks of experience, but her husband is the one with the experience of running the country, not her. He would continue to do it if she were nominated as President. As I have stated, don't count Obama out. He has come a long way, he has surprised Hillary with the strong support he has in America, and as she stated, he would be a good President. It was asked if he would run for Vice President along with her months ago, and he responded, "Why are you asking me that when I am ahead?" He should still respond to that question the very same way. We want a new America, with new ideas, a country that can be respected around the world because we have a President that is morally true and cares for all American people, and that person is Senator Barack Obama!
May God Bless Americans to look past race and vote for a Man who will turn this country around from the ground up.
INDIANA VOTER'S ~~ NORTH CAROLINA VOTER'S
Indiana Voter's and North Carolina Voter's ~~~~ Hope that you go out in full force to vote and support HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON on May 6, 2008.
HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON is the right president for America.
Hillary will get America Back On Track...Hillary can take the heat and turn it up as well.
INDIANA VOTER'S ~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~VOTE - HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON - PRESIDENT!!!
NORTH CAROLINA VOTER'S~~~~~
~~~~~VOTE - HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON - PRESIDENT!!!
Hillary Rodham Clinton is for All the People.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is doer for All People.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is the right president for America.
GO HILLARY!!!!! GO HILLARY!!!!! GO HILLARY!!!!!
GO HILLARY!!!!! GO HILLARY!!!!! GO HILLARY!!!!!
~~~~WHO LET THE DOGS OUT!!!!!!!!
Hillary Rodham Clinton is the right president for America.
It is true. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the right president for America.
Hillary will change America and will change the World as well - Hillary is truly committed to America that much.
Hillary is America's ~~ Motion In The Ocean and she will get America Back On Track and the American Economy with opportunities for All People.
Hillary is well educated, experienced, substance, solutions for America and Hillary is ready to do the presidential duties on day one.
Hillary will do many great things for America - Hillary is a very hard worker and she is committed to America.
Hillary gives hope to the hopeless and renews the American Dream and the American Spirit.
Hillary is a christian, she believes in the Bible, she believes in God, she respects the American flag, she saluates the American flag and she respects the national anthem as well.
Hillary is a doer for All People and Hillary will work very hard for America.
Hillary is the 'Best Change Agent' and Hillary is ready to get the Wheels of Change rolling for America as president.
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~~ENOUGH OF BARACK OBAMA.
~~ENOUGH OF OBAMA'S NEGATIVE.
~~ENOUGH OF OBAMA'S MENTOR AND PASTOR FOR 20 YEARS - REV. WRIGHT SHOUTING 'HATE AMERICA' 'HATE
~~ENOUGH OF BARACK OBAMA --- IS JUST THAT....ENOUGH.
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~~SUPERDELEGATES NEED TO WISE UP ABOUT THE true fact about Barack Obama. Obama will NEVER win - Obama has far too many negative factor attached or connected to him......sad but true. Obama cannot take the heat.
~~SUPERDELEGATES NEED TO CONVERT ENDORSEMENTS TO HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON INSTEAD. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the candidate that will produce the Democratic Presidential Win for America--she can stand the heat and she can turn the heat up as well.
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VOTE - "MY AMERICAN MAMA" - HILLARY ROHDAM CLINTON - PRESIDENT!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!
YOU GO GIRL!!!
GO ALL THE WAY TO THE CONVENTION!!!
GO ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE!!!
~~~~WHO LET THE DOGS OUT!!!!
~~~~WHO LET THE DOGS OUT!!!!
GO HILLARY!!! GO HILLARY!!! GO HILLARY!!!!
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