Despite Pennsylvania Win, Clinton and Obama Have Similar Chances of Beating McCain
Going forward, state demographics could matter more to primary results than campaigning
The dominant theme that has emerged in recent weeks from Democrat Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is that she has the best shot at defeating Republican John McCain in the fall. And Clinton has used her convincing win in yesterday's Pennsylvania primary to amplify her claim—both in her victory speech last night and during appearances today.
But her assertion, Gallup Poll analysts said today, doesn't stand up—empirically speaking. In fact, Frank Newport, writing for the polling firm, said that Gallup's data show that Clinton and opponent Barack Obama perform almost identically in hypothetical match-ups against McCain, the presumed GOP nominee. In Gallup's ongoing presidential race tracking (updated with interviews last Friday through Tuesday), McCain held a 1-point lead over both Dems; another survey, conducted by the firm for USA Today last Friday through Sunday, showed both Obama and Clinton slightly and almost identically ahead of McCain.
"In neither instance is there any meaningful difference in how the two candidates stack up against McCain," Newport wrote. The pollsters further found that Clinton and Obama perform almost identically against McCain in big swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Clinton has argued only she can win in November. Their analysis shows that Obama, in fact, did slightly better against McCain in "both reliably Democratic and reliably Republican states."
What Clinton's Pennsylvania win showed, Newton wrote, was that she benefited from the state's demographic composition, just as Obama does in states with different economic, religion, race, gender, and education factors. Clinton appealed to women in Pennsylvania, who constituted nearly 6 of 10 voters yesterday, Gallup reports, and to older voters, whites, Catholics, lower-income voters, and those with less education. So who wins the upcoming primaries? That, Gallup analysts say, depends more on the types of voters in the remaining states than on campaigning.
There has been a lot of hand-wringing in Democratic circles over whether the long and bruising primary battle will permanently hobble the party and its eventual nominee. Democrats are divided on the issue, Gallup reports. But, predictably, more Obama supporters (58 percent) say the long race is hurting the party than do Clinton supporters (36 percent). The Gallup analysis, however, does confirm one worrisome-for-Democrats trend that exit polls yesterday suggested is growing: A "sizable majority" of both Clinton and Obama supporters say they would vote for McCain if "their" candidate doesn't secure the nomination. A Gallup tracking poll shows that 28 percent of Clinton supporters say they would cross party lines to vote for McCain; 19 percent of Obama supporters say the same.
The threat to cross party lines on Election Day can dissipate, Newport says, citing Gallup's historical final pre-election polls from 1992 to 2004 that show 10 percent or fewer of voters from either party typically vote for the other party's presidential candidate. But, he cautioned, the number of Clinton supporters who now say they would not vote for Obama "suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party." And a bitter fight to the August convention could have consequences that may prove troubling come November.
Reader Comments
Channeling Superdelegates
Hillary''s new slogan is " Why can''t he close the deal?" Someone should remind Hillary that they are running for the office of the President of the United States and that they are not some used car salesmen. Keep counting those imaginary delegates from Michigan and Florida. If there is one thing that America stands for, is that We are a nation of Laws, and Michigan and Florida broke the Democratic laws. The Democratic Party is not going to show the rest of the country that they will break their own rules."If we had the same system as the Republicans, I would already be the nominee...." yet another Clinton scenario for winning the primary. Do you think that you can make any other points as to whether the superdelegates should back Hillary ? Why did the media fail to chastise Ed Rendell " There are some people in this State that will not vote for a black man" but they vote for someone who channels Truman and said " we can totally obliterate Iran" By the way that wasn''t McCain who made that statement... it was Hillary. I did not say Clinton, because you may have understood it to be Bill Clinton.... Hillary won by 9 points and not 10
It's Time
IT'S TIME AMERICA:
It’s time for everyone to face the truth. Barack Obama has no real chance of winning the national election in November at this time. His crushing defeat in Pennsylvania makes that fact crystal clear. His best, and only real chance of winning in November is on a ticket with Hillary Clinton as her VP.
Hillary Clinton seemed almost somber at her victory speech. As if part of her was hoping Obama could have defeated her. And proved he had some chance of winning against the republican attack machine, and their unlimited money, and resources. In all honesty. I felt some of that too.
But it is absolutely essential that the democrats take back the Whitehouse in November. America, and the American people are in a very desperate condition now. And the whole World has been doing all that they can to help keep us propped up.
Hillary Clinton say’s that the heat, and decisions in the Whitehouse are much tougher than the ones on the campaign trail. But I think Mr. Obama faces a test of whether he has what it takes to be a commander and chief by facing the difficult facts, and the truth before him. And by doing what is best for the American people by dropping out of the race, and offering his whole hearted assistance to Hillary Clinton to help her take back the Whitehouse for the American people, and the World.
Mr. Obama is a great speaker. And I am confident he can explain to the American people the need, and wisdom of such a personal sacrifice for them. It should be clear to everyone by now that Hillary Clinton is fighting her heart out for the American people. She has known for a long time that Mr. Obama can not win this November. You have to remember that the Clinton’s have won the Whitehouse twice before. They know what it takes.
If Mr. Obama fails his test of commander and chief we can only hope that Hillary Clinton can continue her heroic fight for the American people. And that she prevails. She will need all the continual support and help we can give her. She may fight like a superhuman. But she is only human.
Sincerely
Jacksmith... Working Class :-)
Obama has already failed-hanging out with the wrong crowd
How can we truly put our country in the hands of a man that has Anti-American Firends-Scary!! Who is Obama? REally who ishe? Speeches, rhetoric and litanies of Complaints agains America! Scary
Obama at the Million Man March with Louis Farrakhan
Personal Associates
William Ayers - American Terrorist
Raul Reyes - Columbian Terrorist
Antonio Rezko - Muslim Slum Lord
Professor Khalidi - Muslim Terrorist Supporter
Reverend Wright - Racist N.O.I. Muslim Supporter/Preacher
Louis Farrakhan - Racist N.O.I. Muslim Supporter/ Faux Preacher
Nadhmi Auchi - Muslim Billionaire
Sohaib Abassi - Muslim Millionaire
Rea more here: http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com
Rules! Florida, Michigan
Rules are Rules Obama says..
I agree: The Rules are that the Super Delagates must support the one they think is more qualified and who will win the Presidency...Obama with his associations can not be president and whether he is ahead, the bottom line is that he can not win the Presidency... So Rules are Rules and the super delegates must think over and put thier support towards someone that has such bad Judgement as the associations he keeps..and worse that he can not really take the questions.
Millions of Americans are concern..I ask is Obama the new Ayers, just disguised
in a sophysticated manner? Maybe? Maybe Not!! its the :Maybe" that concerns many of us! he certainly looks good, nice but if you read between the lines in his book, in his speaches...It's very concerning the not knowing who is this man!
DEMS WANT OBAMA OUT NOW!
OBAMA Spends 12 million plus in negative ads attacking Clinton and still LOSES BIG IN PA! by double digits!!
Obama caught again playing the politics he attacks other for! This guy is a looser!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/rnc-documents-obamas-29minute-conversion_576656_1.html
As a Senator Clinton supporter we will NEVER support Obama because of his lies, corrupt financial friends, racist wife, American and white hater and spiritual advisor Wright that he defends and well-known terrorist connections that also write for the bulletin at TCC Where the Obamas believe is a great atmosphere to raise two young children, he openly supports the crazy rantings of the American hate & white man hate. He is not worthy to lead our great country
Surely proved if Obama would become Democratic nominee he will certainly lose the general election: Obama's camp philosophy of his cadre amount to one big put-down of America. President represents something very personal to Americans who proved they are not in the habit of electing candidates who hold their country in contempt. Not only have the comments of Obama's wife, Michelle who referred to America as "downright mean" and stated that she was not proud of her country until her husband started winning primaries and his minister, Jeremiah Wright (whose hateful, anti-white, anti-American diatribes are available for sale in Obama's church, or for free on YouTube) revealed the tired, leftist scorn for America that Obama represents and condones. Obamas own remarks have exposed this ugly, unelectable side. Obama attempted to explain his persistent deficit in Pennsylvania primary polls by describing small-town Americans as "bitter" people who "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." This is hard stuff, and patronizing, besides. Add to this Obama's characterizations of the "typical white person" describing his grandmother, whom he tossed under the campaign bus to create a false equivalence with Wright's racism and one finds something far more damaging than a simple series of gaffes its a window into how the Obama sees his countrymen. Obama's associations in addition to Anti- American Wright, speak to this unappealing point of view. William Ayers, a domestic terrorist enjoys a friendly relationship with the Obamas. Voters are learning ( with no help from media like CNN & MSNBC, Ayers bombed the Pentagon on May 19, 1972, and fondly recalls, "The sky was blue. The birds were singing. And the bastards were finally going to get what was coming to them." Ayers and his accomplices also bombed the U.S. Capitol, the State Department, as well as banks, police stations and courthouses. Obama has defended Wright insisting that he merely represents the convention of "Black Liberation Theology," as though this were just some quaint offshoot of traditional Christianity. One need not pore over the tenets of Black Liberation Theology or its founder, James Hal Cone -- although a Google search of either would provide a world of clarity to the undecided voter to recognize that a would-be President who cannot utterly disassociate himself from such racist, anti-American rubbish lacks sufficient character and affinity for his country's ideals to be its leader. Americans understand that their president's instinct ought to be to defend the nation against unfair invective, not embrace those who purvey it or, in the case of Ayers, seek to blow it up altogether.
Obama is our only best hope for a better tomorrow.
Hillary and Bill belong to the old and the same that has come before and with them nothing is going to change for the regular joes and janes. Obama still speaks as if he is one of us, Hillary does not even come close to it. Obama inspires in a positive manner and Hillary by fear. It really is that simply some times, vote the person most concerned about us and that person is Obama this time around.
war
i think that we should end the war with iraq because to many lives have been lost already and we don't need to put any more in danger!
Liz Halloran
Apparently Liz Halloran has no understanding of politics. Her ridiculous bolstering of Gallup's idea that Clinton and Obama will beat or lose to McCain by the same margins is based on polls taken now in April. Clinton is saying that come Novemeber, Obama will not withstand the Republican smears and he will lose. Clinton's concerns should be clear to anyone making a living writing about politics. Current polls are not able to account for Ayres, Wright, Bittergate, Michelle and the rest after they have been endlessly exploited by the Republican machinery. Hillary should be way ahead of this bumbling novice and the only reason she isn't is that the Democrats love to lose. And they constantly find new ways to do it.
Oh no, not another revolution..
"Ron Paul revolution.."
History is full examples of a promising revolution gone off tracks. I challenge you to name one that lived up to its promises.
Good change in government takes decades..
"It's very concerning the not knowing who is this man! [Obama]"
Do you know who McCain is? Did you know who George Bush was when you voted for him? No you didn't..
"i think that we should end the war with iraq"..
There are no examples of U.S. history where citizens were able to prevent or to stop a war. It is completely unrealistic expectation.. And even if US Army pulls out of Iraq, the private Blackwater mercenaries will replace them..
"Apparently Liz Halloran has no understanding of politics. "
This article is not a serious discussion of politics. Otherwise it would focus on issues that matter. Why are issues nowhere to be found? eh?
"Obama has defended Wright.." True, but George Bush defended the Bin Laden family and even flew them on a private jet after 9/11. Why don't we explore the real connections between Republicans and bad islamists or crazy neocon churches?
Why did democrats pick a WOMAN and a Young BLACK Islamic-named man instead of an old white man? This is an insurmountable disadvantage to the Dems.
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HOPE
A NEW HOPE
We all have been living a nightmare. A vision D. Eisenhower warned of in his 1961 farewell address to the nation. In his address, Eisenhower warned of the corruption of our government, our society, and our culture by the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. It seems that, as a nation, we have not listened. Eisenhower’s dire vision has become our reality. And from this fearful dream, this nation is waking. Our eyes are opening to the truth collectively for the first time. WE THE PEOPLE are finding that we have been subjugated, placated into ignorance and fear, lied to by the very people we have entrusted to preserve and protect our rights, liberties, and our constitution. Many will turn away in fear of truth and close their eyes once again. To open our eyes to this reality, is to also understand that we are all responsible for it as well. complacency and dependence upon the machine keeps THE PEOPLE in line because it is convenient and safe. We have sold our souls. We have as a nation let this happen to ourselves.
My heart breaks for the people of this nation. Our government wages war upon our freedoms, liberties, and our constitution. I watch our republic’s destruction, not to the sound of guns or bombs, but to the sound of thunderous applause of those held captive by terrified patriotic blindness, guided by the propaganda of fear, as we give our rights and even the lives of our fellow man for the profit of the corrupt. A fear that is erasing our great history of freedom and repeating itself 70 years later with another dictatorship of war, under the guise of homeland security and the protection of the people.
BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE.
With love and openness, we can overcome ignorance and fear. It is our right as the people, and my duty as a United States MARINE written into our constitution by our founding fathers, entrusted to us, by the people, to ensure that our liberty, freedom, and the constitution never again become the subjugation of the corruption that we have wrought upon ourselves. We must take back our country, and give it to the people. So let us open our hearts, take responsibility, and make our HOPE become our reality. Lets begin REVOLUTION. His name
Dr. Ron Paul
Apr 23, 2008 18:15:32 PM [permalink] [report comment]