Young Voters Could Put Obama or Clinton in the White House

Obama supporters in Missouri cheer at a night time campaign rally.

In addition, Levine says McCain's type of campaigning has gone over well with young voters. "What young people would want to see, Sen. McCain has a reputation for delivering—accessibility and candor," he says. But the biggest problem for McCain is proving that in voting for him, young people are getting something new. "They are going to have to show that this is a new administration," says Levine. "That's true of all Americans, but I think young people are especially interested in starting over."

And the candidate who has run on the message of change, not surprisingly, is the one who has fared the best among young voters. Barack Obama has drawn large crowds at colleges and universities across the country and created a flurry of activity among young folk on the Internet.

Obama won the youth vote in every state except California, Arkansas, and Massachusetts, losing it to Clinton in Massachusetts by a point. While he removed his name from the Michigan ballot because the state held its primary too early, "uncommitted" won the youth vote in that state against Clinton. And in New York, solid Clinton territory, Obama lost the race but won the youth vote by 13 points. In a combined sample of all 18- to 29-year-old voters on Super Tuesday, according to the Pew Research Center, Obama received 57 percent to Clinton's 41 percent. To help mitigate this trend, the Clinton campaign, among other things, has sent out daughter Chelsea as a surrogate, and the youngest Clinton has done her own tour of colleges and universities. But even since Chelsea Clinton's debut on the trail, Obama has managed to beat Clinton with the young, including in all four March 4 primary states, where he lost three of the races.

What makes Obama attractive to young voters is his message of hope and working together in Washington, Levine explains. "When we talked to young people last year, they were calling for something very much like Obama is giving to them," Levine says. "Young people don't like partisan division and bickering."

Obama's popularity on the Web has also played a role in getting young people to the polls, but it's hard to say by how much, Levine says. Obama had early support online. The Facebook group "Barack Obama for President in 2008" was created seven months before the Illinois senator actually entered the race and by young people unaffiliated with the campaign. The group grew "at an astonishing rate," says Famid Sinha, one of its first members. Sinha and others were tapped by the actual campaign to run "Students for Barack Obama," and the original Facebook group grew to more than 77,000 members. "I think Senator Obama really inspires Americans of all ages," the 22-year-old replies when asked why the candidate appeals to young people. "But we are usually not engaged in the political process."

This time around, many of them are engaged and, like the Facebook group, are organizing at a grass-roots level separate from the campaign and with help from the Internet. "We are running this thing on our own," says Sinha, now the national director of communications for Students for Barack Obama. "I think that's what a real movement looks like." Obama has also used the Internet to solicit millions in online campaign donations from his website.

But if Howard Dean, the first candidate to really reach out to young voters and campaign on the Internet, can be used as an example, Web support doesn't necessarily translate into electoral support among the young. Dean didn't win the youth vote during the 2004 primaries. It usually went to eventual nominee, John Kerry.

Though for Dean, reaching out to these voters was a step in the right direction, and his party won the youth vote in the two major elections since. The Democratic presidential candidates followed in his footsteps and hired youth coordinators to focus on this demographic. "The campaigns are reaching out to young people; they are going to college campuses, to high schools, and talking to us about things we care about," says Chrissy Faessen, communications director for Rock the Vote. Eilon from the College Republicans says he believes the McCain campaign will also try to attract the youngest demographic. McCain's 23-year-old daughter, Meghan, has already done her father a favor by producing a hip blog, McCainBlogette, that could turn on a younger set of voters to the 71-year-old senator.