Romney, Clinton Lead in Massachusetts

Hillary Clinton chats with reporters on the press plane in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. prior to departing for Arkansas.

"Independents are going to be critical for McCain if he is going to pull off an upset in Romney's backyard, but it's hard to tell right now which direction the unenrolled voters are going to lean," says Doug Kriner, an assistant professor of political science at Boston University. "Romney appears to have a very tight grip among Republican identifiers."

Among Massachusetts Republicans, in fact, Romney still holds a largely favorable opinion, even though he left office with an approval rating in the low to mid-40s. "His reputation is solid," says Robert Willington, executive director of the Massachusetts Republican Party. One other factor likely to play to his favor: the splintering effect of Super Tuesday on candidates' time and money. "We saw the most activity when our neighboring state of New Hampshire was up for the primary," Willington says. "So far we haven't seen too much in terms of paid advertisement from either party."