Romney Loves Michigan; Will It Love Him Back?

Voters, for their part, are clearly split over whom to believe.

Yesterday, Romney sent his audience into a Mitt-chanting frenzy with promises of recovery. (No small task considering that the crowd had already sat through two hours of speeches by local members of Congress, town chairs, the mayor, and the state's attorney general, all clearly stalling for time until Romney, who had been campaigning in upstate Michigan earlier in the day, arrived.) Polls show that Romney has the edge on this issue: Of the respondents who ranked the economy as their top concern, 42 percent favored Romney, compared with 25 for McCain.

Economic issues aside, certain pools of support lean in favor of each candidate. Romney clearly has the home-state card. He was born in the town of Bloomfield Hills, in affluent northwest Detroit. His father, George, was a popular governor in the 1960s, and before he was governor, he was the president of American Motors. Romney makes sure to remind people of this connection, not only that it exists but also that the Romney name is firmly tied to the halcyon days of the American automotive industry.

McCain enjoys no familial lineage here, but he does have a record of success. He won the GOP primary in 2000, defeating George Bush by more than 100,000 votes. Independents, who made up 20 percent of the state's registered voters in 2004, will very likely help his cause. Huckabee has the support of Michigan evangelicals, who account for roughly 30 percent of Republican primary-goers and favor him by a 2-to-1 margin over other candidates.

Reflecting the deep divisions, papers in Michigan have split their endorsements. The Grand Rapids Press and the Oakland Press, both on the conservative west side of the state, endorsed Romney. The two main Detroit papers, the Free Press and the Detroit News, endorsed McCain. The News, while praising Romney's business acumen, wrote that the governor had taken too long to campaign on his actual strengths.

"Instead," the paper wrote, "he has panted after the GOP's most conservative values voters."

A good deal of fluidity remains heading into tomorrow's vote. Nearly 40 percent of voters say they could change their mind by the time they vote, and 22 percent—as of yesterday—had yet to pick a candidate. The potential role that Democrats could play in the Republican race is also being chewed over by pollsters. Because national Democratic leaders stripped Michigan of its delegates after the state moved its primary to mid-January, in effect banning candidates from campaigning here, both Obama and John Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich chose to remain. Some liberal bloggers are now encouraging Democrats in Michigan to vote Republican and specifically in favor of Romney. Their goal: keep the Republican race undecided as long as possible.

If Romney wins, the Republican race will truly become more muddled heading into South Carolina, with a three-man contest among Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. If Romney loses, observers say his Olympic medal metaphor may finally have exhausted its flame.