Romney Loves Michigan; Will It Love Him Back?

Mitt Romney loves Michigan. But will it love him back?

The former Massachusetts governor was born here, and now he is canvassing the state, campaigning as a native son with a case of nostalgia. One might get the impression, just watching him, that he is running not for the presidency but for the governorship. At a campaign stop Sunday in the town of Taylor, just south of Detroit, volunteers handed out hot dogs and potato chips to about 250 people. The scene was full of Americana and distinctly Michiganian. Plastic pump tubs of GFK Extra Thick Ketchup and Crown's Yellow Mustard, on nearby tables, were manufactured in Grand Rapids, on the western side of the state. Ann Romney, introducing her husband, said, "We love Michigan" at least three times. Mitt Romney, walking on stage, hit the message home.

"It sure does feel like a homecoming, I got to tell you," he said over a din of cheers and what sounded like the lyrics of Elvis Presley's "A Little Less Conversation."

Yet Romney is running only a few points ahead of John McCain in recent state polls.

The primary here is being hyped by pundits as a critical moment for the Romney campaign, a potential jetty to the politician's slipping prospects after second-place finishes in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney recently dropped his ads in South Carolina and Florida, hoping to concentrate his efforts here. A new Detroit Free Press poll released this past weekend showed Romney with a slight edge over Sen. John McCain, 27 to 22 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee a strong third, at 16 percent. (The poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research firm Selzer & Co., which correctly predicted Sen. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa.)

Unlike the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, however, which tend to spotlight different voting groups (evangelicals, independents, etc.), the Michigan primary has put a single issue--the economy—into klieg lights. The state's unemployment rate is currently 7.5 percent, the highest in the country. Since 2006, more than 70,000 homes in Detroit have been foreclosed. Property values are down nearly 20 percent. The backslide, anyone will tell you, is the result of the sagging Detroit auto industry, which has cut thousands of blue-collar jobs in the past decade as American car companies have crumpled against rising oil prices and increased foreign competition. The woes are now self-perpetuating, too. A recent study found that more than 60 percent of college seniors at the University of Michigan plan to leave the state to find better jobs after graduation.

Nearly half of Michigan GOP voters say the economy is their top concern today, the Free Press poll found. Other issues, such as terrorism, immigration, and the war in Iraq, still rate high but have receded from the foreground.

How the economy card will play for the candidates remains unclear. Romney, McCain, and Huckabee have each recently put forward different ideas—to call them "plans" would be too generous—about how to solve the problem. (The other main Republican candidates—Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul—have chosen not to actively campaign here.) What their ideas lack in detail they compensate for in tone. Romney is billing himself as an optimist, stressing his record as a successful businessman who rebuilt flagging companies and rescued the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in 2002.

Now he is promising Michigan voters he will restore the automotive jobs the state has lost, laying blame for the loss on federal regulation. He for instance opposes stricter fuel standards unless they are part of a more comprehensive energy efficiency strategy.

"Why does Washington throw anvils on the auto industry...and then see if it can swim with anvils around its neck?" Romney asked his audience in Taylor. "I believe that Washington is broken, and I intend to fix it."

McCain has been more somber on the topic. In the South Carolina GOP debate last week, he said point-blank that "some jobs won't come back to Michigan." McCain called his comment straight talk; the Romney camp labeled it pessimism. But McCain has held firm in Michigan, if massaging his rhetoric a bit. At a town hall-style meeting in Howell, about 20 miles north of Ann Arbor, McCain bluntly reminded voters of his opinion that climate change is happening and that "one of the greatest greenhouse emitters is automobiles." He pledged that he would invest heavily in new green technologies to revive the industry and has proposed providing federal subsidies to retrain blue-collar workers at community colleges.

Huckabee, who returned to Michigan today following a brief swing through South Carolina, has piqued the interest of some voters here with his populist economic message, his criticism of free-trade agreements, and his "fair tax" proposal, which he says will benefit middle-class families.