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Obama: Troop Announcement May Come After Afghan Vote

Posted October 30, 2009

The ballots will be redistributed and the cardboard voting booths reconstructed as the current plan to have a presidential election runoff moves ahead in Afghanistan. This will require quick work in an increasingly violent country—the date has been set for November 7 in an effort to ensure that voting is done ahead of the often brutal winter weather.

The initial August trip to the polls for the country's second-ever presidential race plunged Afghanistan into uncertainty and division, with widespread allegations of fraud emerging alongside the discovery of hundreds of fake polling stations churning out thousands of fake ballots—the vast majority in favor of incumbent President Hamid Karzai. On the heels of a recount and audit by international election monitors, nearly a quarter of the votes were thrown out, reducing Karzai's lead to 49.7 percent, less than the 50 percent of the votes he needed to avert a runoff.

Getting Karzai to agree to the do-over, however, was no easy feat, prompting the Obama administration to launch a full-court diplomatic press. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry flew to the country to help do some persuading, taking long strolls with Karzai and reportedly sharing his own election disappointments during the 2004 U.S. presidential race. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton phoned Karzai to say that she, too, sympathized, even as she implored him to accept the findings of the international election commission.

Still, Karzai sounded snippy standing beside Kerry at a Kabul press conference announcing the breakthrough, and certainly loath to accept findings of fraud. "Why their votes were disrespected should be thoroughly investigated," he said. "But," he added with an injured air of resignation, "it is not the right time to discuss this."

There had been talk of a coalition government between Karzai and his closest rival for the presidency, former foreign minister and physician Abdullah Abdullah, who has signaled that he is open to the idea. The Afghan Constitution, however, makes no provisions for power-sharing arrangements. "The coalition has no legitimacy and is not possible," Karzai said.

But the legitimacy of the current government is now one of the greatest sources of concern for U.S. officials, particularly as Karzai this week refused Abdullah's request to replace the head of Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission, widely believed to be favorable to the incumbent. United Nations officials were frustrated this week when the commission said it would have some 6,300 polling stations open on Election Day throughout the country, contrary to what UN officials had requested—and Abdullah demanded. They want some 500 polling places be closed due to their isolated locales, which make them difficult for election monitors to reach and easy to attack. Many are also the same polling places run by officials accused of widespread fraud during the original election.

This all represents a problem for U.S. officials. America needs a partner government that is seen as legitimate in the eyes of the Afghan people, and President Obama confessed that he was not beyond implying that any possibility for more U.S. troops, urgently requested by the commander of U.S. forces on the ground, may hinge on a fraud-free arrangement.

Obama is also giving the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the heads of the military services, including the Army and Marines, a chance to tell him how the request for more troops will impact their branches.

And if the White House already knows what the new plan for Afghanistan is, Obama intimated, he will hold that information close to his chest, at least until the completion of a fraud-free second round election.

"I think it is entirely possible that we have a strategy formulated before a runoff is determined," Obama said in a television interview, adding pointedly: "We may not announce it."