Fraud Allegations Upset Delicate Balance in Afghanistan

On a tour of polling stations in Kabul in the immediate aftermath of Afghanistan's presidential election last month, special envoy Richard Holbrooke warned that if the will of the electorate were to be thwarted, it would take place during the counting of the ballots. The White House has indicated that it will not make any decisions on whether or not to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, a growing topic of national debate, until the results of the election are clear. Defense Secretary Robert Gates alluded to the turmoil during a press conference this week. "There is no question," he said, "that the nature of the election in Afghanistan has complicated the picture for us."

Afghanistan has been cast into political purgatory this month by allegations of voter fraud withspread enough that a United Nations-backed election watchdog panel has ordered a recount of some 10 percent of votes nationwide. President Hamid Karzai's chief rival for the job, Abdullah Abdullah, has accused the incumbent of widespread ballot stuffing, a charge that seems borne out by a high vote tally in provinces with a low turnout. The large number of vote totals ending in zero has also been a tip-off, according to election analysts who say such figures are highly suspicious because they indicate that final counts were predetermined (so that Karzai would receive, for example, 500 votes rather than 457).

The U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission confirmed "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" at a number of polling stations across the south, where Karzai has strong links to tribal leaders. It called for a recount in areas where Karzai received more than 95 percent (and, in some cases, over 100 percent) of the possible votes.

There was more confusion to come. Hours after the EEC announcement, the Afghan Independent Election Commission declared that with 91 percent of the vote tallied, Karzai had 54 percent of the vote, thereby avoiding a runoff with Abdullah, who for his part has hinted that it could be difficult to know what havoc his supporters might wreak in the face of "state-engineered fraud."

This has all put the United States in a precarious position. As it embarks on a new war strategy that emphasizes tackling corruption and making life better for the average Afghan, it needs a strong and legitimate government partner. The fraud allegations undermine Karzai's credibility throughout a country where citizens are already angered at being regularly shaken down by government officials while receiving little in the way of services or security in return.

Such deep frustration has been compounded by Afghan citizens' rage at deaths caused by accidental bombings of civilians. Immediately after his arrival in June, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, announced a change in conditions under which bombs can be dropped and the procedures for dropping them. But this month, NATO soldiers from Germany called in a U.S. airstrike against two gas tanker trucks hijacked by the Taliban. The airstrike killed scores of civilians in what had been a relatively peaceful northern province. McChrystal appointed a Canadian general to lead a formal investigation, which is expected to take several weeks.

In the meantime, U.S. officials are busy troubleshooting how to handle the alarming election fraud developments. "It is very important that these elections are seen as legitimate in the eyes of the Afghan people," noted a State Department spokesman. Western partners don't want to be accused of propping up a corrupt regime. But with Karzai likely to win even if the election goes to a runoff (which happens if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote), U.S. officials can express only so much outrage. They are in no hurry to alienate a president whose help they will desperately need in the months to come. 

• See photos of the election in Afghanistan.