Top 10 Global Risks in 2009

6. Venezuela : President Hugo Chavez's plan for a referendum to reform the constitution and abolish term limits is unlikely to succeed. Faced with defeat, Chavez is likely to take an increasingly authoritarian approach, which will raise social and political turmoil domestically.

7. Mexico : Rising violence and corruption scandals associated with narco-trafficking will continue to raise questions about the government's strategy against organized crime. However, growing public concerns will not affect political stability or the government's increasingly aggressive efforts to weaken the drug cartels.

8. Ukraine : Direct military conflict with Russia is unlikely, but battles between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko will continue to divide the government and complicate attempts to deal with Ukraine's economic crisis. Growing unemployment, falling wages, and anger at politicians will increase the risk of social unrest in major cities.

9. Turkey : The fight between secularists—in the judiciary, military, and industry—and the Islamists in government is becoming a serious obstacle to economic advancement and Ankara's bid for EU membership.

10. South Africa: The African National Congress is likely to keep a majority in parliament and Jacob Zuma should prevail as the country's next president. Uncertainty over the government's macroeconomic approach, however, may lead to market pessimism, and the outcome of Zuma's corruption case could pose further challenges.

• Read about the foreign policy challenges that face an Obama administration .
• Read about the issue of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq in 2009 .
• Read about the challenges for the United States from Iran, North Korea, and Russia .
• Interactive Report: Momentous Events of the Past Year