Friday, November 27, 2009

Nation & World

A Look at the World's Largest Stimulus Plans Outside the United States

Posted January 5, 2009

President-elect Barack Obama and Democrats have been pushing for a stimulus plan estimated to be between $750 billion and $1 trillion dollars, including $300 billion in tax breaks. That sum—up to 7 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product of $13.84 trillion—has caused some sticker shock in Congress and beyond.

But the United States isn't the only country proposing a massive stimulus package. Today, for example, Germany's coalition parties negotiated a stimulus package that could go as high as $68 billion.

Below, a roundup of stimulus plans announced in the world's five largest economies after the United States.

Japan
GDP: $4.384 trillion (2007 estimate)

Stimulus announced in December: 64 trillion yen ($687.7 billion). Percentage of GDP: 15.7 percent

Earlier stimulus announced in August: 11.7 trillion yen ($125.7 billion). Percentage of GDP: 2.9 percent

In late December, a beleaguered Japanese cabinet announced its "immediate policy package to safeguard people's daily lives," the latest incarnation of a massive package to jump-start the world's second-largest economy.

The plan includes tax cuts on mortgages, grants for employment opportunities, and a 20 trillion yen plan to buy shares in banks. One of the most controversial measures of the package, however, is its cash handouts—12,000 yen ($128) to each resident and an additional 8,000 yen ($86) for each child and senior citizen—which critics say are unlikely to be shoveled back into the economy.

The package comes on top of an earlier stimulus plan of 11.7 trillion yen, which introduced tax cuts, reduced highway tolls, and provided support for employment services for women, the elderly, and people with disabilities.

Japan slid into recession when its economy shrank by 0.9 percent in the second quarter and 0.1 percent in the third quarter last year. Meanwhile, its industrial output slid 8.1 percent in November alone, the sharpest decline since records began in 1953.

Germany
GDP: $3.322 trillion (2007 estimate)

Stimulus expected in January: 40 billion to 50 billion euros ($54.3 billion to $67.9 billion). Percentage of GDP: 1.6 to 2 percent

Stimulus announced in November: 31 billion euros ($42.2 billion). Percentage of GDP: 1.3 percent

German government leaders negotiated over a second stimulus package today, with proposals ranging from 40 billion to 50 billion euros over two years. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with coalition leaders today to discuss the package, which should be unveiled by mid-January.

Both sides agree that the package should focus on investments in infrastructure. The major point of contention, however, is whether the plan should also cut taxes. The center-right Christian Democrats are in favor, but the center-left Social Democrats are resisting, saying that tax cuts wouldn't help Germany's lower-income households, which don't have to pay income tax.

The newest package comes on top of an earlier plan to spend 31 billion euros over two years. That package included tax breaks on car purchases, loans to businesses, subsidies for household repairs, and money for roads, but many economists, business executives, and politicians derided it as too modest to save the European Union's largest economy. They pointed out that many of the projects had already been slated, with truly new spending amounting to only 4 billion euros ($5.4 billion) in 2009.

Germany entered a recession in the third quarter of last year, and its economy is projected to shrink by 20 percent or more next year.

China
GDP: $3.251 trillion (2007 estimate)

Stimulus announced in November: 4 trillion yuan ($585.6 billion). Percentage of GDP: 18 percent

In November, China unveiled a two-year plan to kick-start the economy, hinging on improvements to housing and infrastructure. Proposed projects include constructing 25,000 miles of railways, building 6 million affordable and low-income apartments, reducing pollution, and improving rural water quality.

The effort is the largest of its kind ever to be undertaken by the Chinese government. Worth remembering, however, is that the capital for China's infrastructural projects usually comes from state-owned banks and companies rather than from the government itself. That makes it hard to compare with other countries' stimulus packages.

China's economy is still growing, at 9 percent in the third quarter last year, but that rate is less than its 11.9 percent growth in 2007. And its manufacturing sector, which makes up 40 percent of its economic output, shrank for the third month in December.

United Kingdom
GDP: $2.773 trillion (2007 estimate)

Stimulus announced in November: 20 billion pounds ($29.2 billion). Percentage of GDP: 1.1 percent

The British government's package includes reducing the value-added tax rate from 17.5 percent to 15 percent, the first across-the-board cut in its history. (To offset the cut, duties on gas, alcohol, and tobacco are being raised). Corporate tax increases will be postponed, loans rolled out for small and midsize businesses, and 3 billion pounds ($4.4 billion) spent on roads, schools, and other public-works projects. The money will be spread out through 2010.

Conservatives have attacked the New Labour party for failing to adhere to its promises of fiscal prudence, especially since the sum is predicted to double Britain's deficit to 8 percent of its GDP.

Still, some, including at the International Monetary Fund, say that's not enough. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn has recommended that countries that can do so invest 2 percent of their economic output in stimulus packages, including Britain.

France
GDP: $2.56 trillion (2007 estimate)

Stimulus announced in December: 26 billion euros ($35.3 billion). Percentage of GDP: 1.4 percent

In an effort to revive the EU's third-largest economy, French President Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled a large stimulus plan on December 4.

State investments eat up 10.5 billion euros ($14.3 billion) of the package; 11 billion euros ($14.9 billion) will go toward repaying sales tax and in tax refunds for research and development. Another 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion) will go to the auto and construction industries, including a credit of 1,000 euros ($1,357) for people who swap their car for an energy-efficient car, a loan facility of 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) to help auto giants Renault and Peugeot, and plans for building 100,000 social housing units.

The package will increase France's budget deficit by another 15 billion euros,($20.4 billion), up to 3.9 percent of GDP.

The country's national statistics agency said in mid-December that France's economy shrank by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter last year, the worst rate since 1974. And France's unemployment rate was estimated at 7.7 percent in September.

If the package isn't enough, Sarkozy has said that the government is ready to infuse even more money into the system.

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