China's Economy Is on Track to Surpass the U.S. by 2035
A new study assesses both commercial and potential military implications
As if the U.S. economic slump, the housing crisis, surging oil and food prices, and a general sense that things are not going all that well weren't enough, a new study forecasts that China will become the "pre-eminent world commercial influence" by 2035, when it surpasses the U.S. economy. The study released today is by Albert Keidel, who specializes in China economic issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It is clear that China's economic juggernaut will have far-reaching implications for economic, diplomatic, and military matters in coming years—the subject of Keidel's study titled "China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction."
Keidel forecasts that China's economy will double by midcentury, fueled by domestic demand, not exports. Potential stumbling blocks to sustained Chinese growth—export concerns, domestic economic instability, inequality and poverty, pollution, social unrest, or even corruption and slow political reform—are unlikely to undermine China's long-term success, according to the report.
"A Chinese economy that eclipses the U.S. by mid-century has both commercial and potential military implications," the report says. "China will be the preeminent world commercial influence. China's military capabilities are a small fraction of the United States' today, so there is time to prepare for a very different world in fifty years."
—Terry Atlas
Reader Comments
Some Over-exaggeration?
Not to say that I don't believe the prediction that the Chinese economy will surpass that of the US, but I feel that the extent to which China will exceed the US seems to be somewhat exaggerated. I doubt that China will have an economy miles ahead of America's; there would probably be only a slight difference between the two, and both would most likely be constantly vying for superiority over the other, with neither really attaining any great advantage.
Also, you can't ignore the EU in this whole situation too. As it stands now, the European Union is the wealthiest region in the world with a GDP that exceeds America's ($16 trillion to US's $13 trillion). Unlike the US, Europe is greatly progressive and innovative in all kinds of technological endeavors, as well as in the social and ideological spheres. The EU should not be forgotten, for its role in the future would be as important as America's or China's.
Hahahaha
Bye bye America, welcome Great China.
China's economy to surpass American economy
Since 2003 China's GDP has been over 10 percent while ours 1 percent(Latin AMerican countries have 4-8 percent).
We have fallen behind: I have a sister who is a research scientiest(she worked on Parkinson's disease then cancer) and she along with her colleagues are disheartened. They are leaving even fron NIH and some opening labs in China because this administration cut monies for education. For our treatments and medications to be less expensive research in universities are crucial. Most bioengineering students are Indians not AMericans. R$D drug companies are no longer here but in China.
China bought 1 trillion of our debt and weighed in the Fannie and Freddie Mac decision.
I along with a group went to CHina in 2005 and we were shocked and amazed at its growth and innovations. We all were speechless, in my mind I thought, "OMG, this can't be. They have surpassed us".
Their major cities are like NY, London, Los Angeles and San Francisco combined and the cars they drive are Hondas and Toyotas. I have a friend who went to China for 6 months to learn Mandarin and write for Frommer's and she told me the neighborhoods have houses with Mercedes and tennis courts.
I do believe China will be the new superpower. All the world knows it except most Americans unless you visit there then you will be shocked.
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