Election Season Wild Card: Covert Operations Against Iran, al Qaeda
War being waged in the shadows could end up in the spotlight
With 18 weeks to go before the presidential election, two news reports today serve as vivid reminders that a foreign crisis could still erupt before the election and sway the outcome.
What makes these two stories particularly notable is that the risks stem from risky covert initiatives being pursued by the Bush administration.
First, the New Yorker magazine reports that Congress has agreed to a Bush administration request for a $400 million covert action effort against Iran that would support dissident groups and target the country's nuclear weapons program. Some provocative operations may have already been carried out. The magazine claims that U.S. Special Forces based in Iraq have conducted cross-border operations in Iran, including missions to seize members of the troublesome Al Quds arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The report by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh also cites covert American funding for violent ethnic insurgent groups in Iran with the goal of regime change.
U.S. officials have denied these reports, but any covert U.S. operations inside Iran runs the risk that it could end up triggering a series of events that spins out of control into a broader conflict. The capture of any American operative in Iraq could become a new "hostage" crisis. Or Iran could retaliate by, for instance, fueling more violence by its surrogates in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories; by cutting oil exports to drive prices higher; or by trying to hit a U.S. warship or an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf.
There is little room for miscalculation. Tehran and Washington are already on a razor's edge. Tehran is troubled by the large U.S. presence in Iraq, while Washington claims Iran is supplying weapons and training to Iraqi insurgents. Then there's the battle over Iran's alleged nuclear program.
There have been persistent rumors that some in Israel and in the Bush administration—noting the lack of progress toward a negotiated outcome that halts Iran's uranium enrichment operations—may want to launch a military strike to disable Iran's nuclear effort in the coming months, although Bush publicly insists that military force would be a last resort. Both Israel and Iran have been publicly exchanging threats of attacks.
The second story was a New York Times report that top officials in the Bush administration have been pushing for stepped-up special operations missions into the troubled tribal region in Pakistan where al Qaeda and the Taliban have reconstituted a safe haven. Bush reportedly has yet to sign any orders, but U.S. officials are desperate to go after al Qaeda's leadership and fill a gap where Pakistani forces rarely operate.
But others fear a violent backlash if U.S. forces were discovered to be operating in Pakistan. Such revelations would embarrass the government of Pakistan, which would likely have to reduce its cooperation with Washington to placate an angry public. But it could also trigger a whole new level of tribal support for al Qaeda and the Taliban and spark a new set of terrorist attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan, or beyond.
At this point, it is unclear whether presidential candidates John McCain or Barack Obama would benefit more from the outbreak of a new crisis, whether in Iran, Pakistan, or elsewhere. They are only beginning to debate foreign policy issues on the campaign trail.
McCain adviser Charlie Black ran into trouble recently for suggesting that a terrorist attack would benefit McCain because of his veteran national security credentials. In times of crisis, voters sometimes do find comfort in experience.
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Reader Comments
lols' Rubbish!
Wow! Such fury from a rabid Neocon! What a bunch
of hardnosed rubbish -- keep it up and one of these
days "righteous fury" will land in America.... Then,
rather than your words, "Exactly, destruction of Persian
people and property. That does not concern us...." will
become, "Exactly, destruction of American people
and property. That does not concern us...." Violence
breeds violence, and it will soon appear in your own
back yard!
RE : Practice before you PREACH
Dear undereducated Moron, Your statement "The only country that used nuclear weapons is our own.It killed millions of innocent life in Japan." .if erroneous.
Try to read a book sometime and do some research.You will find this fact :
"The bombs killed as many as 140,000 people in Hiroshima and 80,000 in Nagasaki by the end of 1945,[3] roughly half on the days of the bombings."
That is only 220,000 not the "millions" you imagined.The fact is the US bombed two major industrial centers, not a major population center such as Tokyo.
You would not know this because obviously you dont read, but Hitler,Stalin,Mao tse tung a and about a half dozen other Dictator/conquerors were individually responsible for the deaths or tens of millions of innocents EACH.
Even the recent tsunami in the indian ocean killed more innocents.
We were in the middle of a war at that time and the bombs were used to knock out the industial base of Japan to force Japan to surrender.Hitler was also trying to develop and use a nuclear weapon before Germany was defeated and believe me he would have used them.
Since that time the Soviet union has threatened the US many times with nuclear destruction and even put their missles in Cuba as a direct threat.
China as recently as 2 years ago threatened to vaporize San Diego if the US interviened in a Taiwan conflict. China will soon have many more nuclear weapons than the rest of the world combined.
Iran has many times theatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and believe me if they get a nuclear weapon, they will do just that. We have a mutual defense treaty with israel. Would you prefer to get involved before Iran has a nuclear weapon or after?
You act like the rest of the world is so meek and mild and the US is the only aggressor. I suggest you read some books and newspapers and quit smoking them.
I have many friends from Iran. I can tell you they do not like their current goverment but are powerless to do anything about it.The mullahs that run Iran are a group of about 50 individuals who are all millionares now and run Iran like a Mafia and claim its all in the name of Allah.While the rest of the people are starving to death.
I hope the US is trying to destabilize Iran and is prepared to do what it takes if that doesnt work.
Rememeber that great song from a few years back:
"Bomb bomb bomb Bomb bomb Iran"
Catchy and hopefully one day true!
The Truth of the Bush's Neocon agenda
The Neo Con's Brave New World
Now Bush and Cheney had a problem
That chewed upon their ass
For Iran had operating fields
That were beond their grasp
So what to do about it
How to turn the game our way
We will state they want the atom bomb
Then blow them all away
But we have to play it cunning
For we cant afford lose
We stir up the Israelis to hit them
Then just blame it on the Jews
For Israel is always threatened
When they don’t get their way
And since they have atomic bombs
It makes sense anyway
Since 48 they have cried the victim
And they have that role down pat
For when they fly to strike Iran
We know most wont come back
Here is the strength of our master plan
For we cop it as sweet as we can
We save the aid we give to the yids
And get those oil fields in Iran
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